Subtext

The Progressive Corporation PGR

SectorFinancials
Transcripts54
Date range2008-11-12 – 2025-05-06
Calls charted54

Sentiment timeline

Net Loughran-McDonald sentiment per call (×1000), earliest → latest.

-16-8+0+8+162008 Q32012 Q22014 Q32016 Q32018 Q42020 Q32022 Q22024 Q12008 Q3 · Overall: -5.52009 Q3 · Overall: -3.52009 Q4 · Overall: -6.32010 Q2 · Overall: +0.82010 Q3 · Overall: -1.02011 Q2 · Overall: -0.52011 Q4 · Overall: -0.92012 Q2 · Overall: -13.72012 Q3 · Overall: -1.32012 Q4 · Overall: -1.32013 Q2 · Overall: +0.12013 Q3 · Overall: -4.02013 Q4 · Overall: +2.52014 Q2 · Overall: +4.62014 Q3 · Overall: +4.92014 Q4 · Overall: +5.72015 Q2 · Overall: -4.82015 Q3 · Overall: -7.22015 Q4 · Overall: -5.02016 Q1 · Overall: -4.12016 Q2 · Overall: -3.92016 Q3 · Overall: -1.52017 Q1 · Overall: -3.92017 Q2 · Overall: +0.82017 Q3 · Overall: +7.62017 Q4 · Overall: +7.12018 Q2 · Overall: +8.72018 Q3 · Overall: +0.82018 Q4 · Overall: +1.02019 Q1 · Overall: -1.42019 Q2 · Overall: +7.92019 Q3 · Overall: +3.12019 Q4 · Overall: +1.72020 Q1 · Overall: -3.72020 Q2 · Overall: +1.42020 Q3 · Overall: +5.02020 Q4 · Overall: +5.82021 Q1 · Overall: -6.22021 Q2 · Overall: +3.42021 Q3 · Overall: -6.42021 Q4 · Overall: -6.22022 Q1 · Overall: +0.42022 Q2 · Overall: -4.12022 Q3 · Overall: -1.32022 Q4 · Overall: +2.42023 Q1 · Overall: -8.72023 Q2 · Overall: -13.82023 Q3 · Overall: +1.52023 Q4 · Overall: +10.62024 Q1 · Overall: +1.42024 Q2 · Overall: +7.12024 Q3 · Overall: +3.02024 Q4 · Overall: +8.12025 Q1 · Overall: +5.3
Overall

CEO vs CFO

Average sentiment of each executive's remarks per call. Divergence is a signal.

-58-29+0+29+582008 Q32012 Q22014 Q32016 Q32018 Q42020 Q32022 Q22024 Q12008 Q3 · CEO: +1.72009 Q3 · CEO: +1.02009 Q4 · CEO: +0.22010 Q2 · CEO: +9.32010 Q3 · CEO: +1.82011 Q2 · CEO: +3.92011 Q4 · CEO: +0.02012 Q2 · CEO: +0.22012 Q3 · CEO: +3.82012 Q4 · CEO: +4.52013 Q2 · CEO: +1.92013 Q3 · CEO: +4.22013 Q4 · CEO: +6.62014 Q2 · CEO: +5.52014 Q3 · CEO: +10.32014 Q4 · CEO: +6.72015 Q2 · CEO: -1.42015 Q3 · CEO: -6.82015 Q4 · CEO: -0.72016 Q1 · CEO: -5.22016 Q2 · CEO: +2.22017 Q1 · CEO: +1.92017 Q2 · CEO: +3.12017 Q3 · CEO: +13.72017 Q4 · CEO: +9.02018 Q2 · CEO: +8.32018 Q3 · CEO: +7.22019 Q1 · CEO: +3.92019 Q2 · CEO: +10.12019 Q3 · CEO: +5.72019 Q4 · CEO: +5.32020 Q1 · CEO: +0.02020 Q2 · CEO: +3.22020 Q3 · CEO: +7.22020 Q4 · CEO: +11.72021 Q1 · CEO: -1.92021 Q2 · CEO: -0.22021 Q3 · CEO: -5.02021 Q4 · CEO: -0.42022 Q1 · CEO: +2.82022 Q3 · CEO: +2.72022 Q4 · CEO: +9.92023 Q1 · CEO: -3.82023 Q2 · CEO: -3.02023 Q3 · CEO: +6.62024 Q3 · CEO: +5.12024 Q4 · CEO: +6.32025 Q1 · CEO: +9.02008 Q3 · CFO: +5.02009 Q3 · CFO: -4.12009 Q4 · CFO: -50.12010 Q2 · CFO: -2.52010 Q3 · CFO: -0.82011 Q2 · CFO: -0.92011 Q4 · CFO: +3.22012 Q2 · CFO: -28.02012 Q3 · CFO: -3.92012 Q4 · CFO: -6.02013 Q2 · CFO: -15.32013 Q3 · CFO: -18.62013 Q4 · CFO: -9.72014 Q2 · CFO: +7.52014 Q3 · CFO: -0.72014 Q4 · CFO: +8.72015 Q2 · CFO: +1.22015 Q3 · CFO: -4.82015 Q4 · CFO: +0.02016 Q1 · CFO: +12.82016 Q2 · CFO: -6.02017 Q2 · CFO: +4.92017 Q3 · CFO: +2.52017 Q4 · CFO: -3.42018 Q2 · CFO: +5.62018 Q3 · CFO: +5.72019 Q1 · CFO: +2.12019 Q2 · CFO: -3.82019 Q3 · CFO: +1.22019 Q4 · CFO: +0.02020 Q1 · CFO: -14.5
CEOCFO

Prepared remarks vs Q&A

Scripted tone vs unscripted answers. The gap is information.

-34-17+0+17+342008 Q32012 Q22014 Q32016 Q32018 Q42020 Q32022 Q22024 Q12008 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -29.72009 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -27.52009 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -27.52010 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -23.52010 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -23.42011 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -5.82011 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -6.12012 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -5.82012 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -5.82012 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -5.02013 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -6.02013 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -5.82013 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -6.32014 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -5.22014 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -6.32014 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +3.62015 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -6.22015 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +27.82015 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -6.02016 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +28.62016 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +0.02016 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -1.52017 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -6.12017 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +4.32017 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +12.32017 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +12.22018 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +16.52018 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +14.32018 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +21.62019 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +1.92019 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +15.12019 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +14.82019 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +4.32020 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +1.02020 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +3.82020 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +2.22020 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +7.62021 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -6.32021 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +14.12021 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -2.62021 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -11.42022 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +1.22022 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +3.32022 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -3.22022 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +3.12023 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -2.72023 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -18.92023 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +1.62023 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +23.82024 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -13.22024 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +11.62024 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +7.92024 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +8.42025 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +5.52008 Q3 · Q&A responses: -0.52009 Q3 · Q&A responses: +0.42009 Q4 · Q&A responses: -4.62010 Q2 · Q&A responses: +5.92010 Q3 · Q&A responses: +3.02011 Q2 · Q&A responses: +1.22011 Q4 · Q&A responses: +0.12012 Q2 · Q&A responses: -12.12012 Q3 · Q&A responses: +1.32012 Q4 · Q&A responses: +1.22013 Q2 · Q&A responses: +0.92013 Q3 · Q&A responses: -2.42013 Q4 · Q&A responses: +4.52014 Q2 · Q&A responses: +5.62014 Q3 · Q&A responses: +7.22014 Q4 · Q&A responses: +7.82015 Q2 · Q&A responses: -3.32015 Q3 · Q&A responses: -6.52015 Q4 · Q&A responses: -1.62016 Q1 · Q&A responses: -3.12016 Q2 · Q&A responses: -0.22017 Q1 · Q&A responses: -0.72017 Q2 · Q&A responses: -0.62017 Q3 · Q&A responses: +5.12017 Q4 · Q&A responses: -1.22018 Q2 · Q&A responses: +3.82018 Q3 · Q&A responses: +6.02018 Q4 · Q&A responses: +4.72019 Q1 · Q&A responses: -3.42019 Q2 · Q&A responses: +2.82019 Q3 · Q&A responses: -0.32019 Q4 · Q&A responses: +0.02020 Q1 · Q&A responses: -3.12020 Q2 · Q&A responses: +2.42020 Q3 · Q&A responses: +7.12020 Q4 · Q&A responses: +10.02021 Q2 · Q&A responses: -3.92021 Q3 · Q&A responses: -4.82021 Q4 · Q&A responses: +1.22022 Q1 · Q&A responses: +2.32022 Q2 · Q&A responses: +1.92022 Q3 · Q&A responses: +2.72022 Q4 · Q&A responses: +6.62023 Q1 · Q&A responses: -4.52023 Q2 · Q&A responses: -6.12023 Q3 · Q&A responses: +7.32023 Q4 · Q&A responses: +10.12024 Q1 · Q&A responses: +7.52024 Q2 · Q&A responses: +8.12024 Q3 · Q&A responses: +4.92024 Q4 · Q&A responses: +9.12025 Q1 · Q&A responses: +9.6
Prepared remarksQ&A responses

Tone vs forward expectations

Management tone next to Wall Street's forward-looking numbers (glopardo): the 12-month forward EPS estimate and the forward P/E per call.

Forward EPS estimate

$0.76$7.37$13.972008 Q32012 Q22014 Q32016 Q32018 Q42020 Q32022 Q22024 Q12014 Q2: $1.682014 Q3: $1.702014 Q4: $1.762015 Q2: $1.932015 Q3: $1.982015 Q4: $1.982016 Q1: $2.032016 Q2: $1.972016 Q3: $1.932017 Q1: $2.222017 Q2: $2.482017 Q3: $2.652017 Q4: $2.912018 Q2: $4.182018 Q3: $4.582018 Q4: $4.832019 Q1: $5.082019 Q2: $5.372019 Q3: $5.502019 Q4: $5.362020 Q1: $5.392020 Q2: $5.832020 Q3: $5.802020 Q4: $5.702021 Q1: $5.872021 Q2: $5.722021 Q3: $5.002021 Q4: $4.642022 Q1: $5.042022 Q2: $5.332022 Q3: $5.942022 Q4: $6.302023 Q1: $6.822023 Q2: $6.512023 Q3: $6.812023 Q4: $8.012024 Q1: $9.532024 Q2: $11.662024 Q3: $13.06

Forward P/E

11.8517.2722.692008 Q32012 Q22014 Q32016 Q32018 Q42020 Q32022 Q22024 Q12014 Q2: 15.302014 Q3: 14.812014 Q4: 14.872015 Q2: 14.482015 Q3: 15.652015 Q4: 16.052016 Q1: 16.742016 Q2: 16.162016 Q3: 15.922017 Q1: 18.112017 Q2: 17.912017 Q3: 17.442017 Q4: 19.202018 Q2: 14.962018 Q3: 15.272018 Q4: 12.602019 Q1: 14.232019 Q2: 15.242019 Q3: 13.672019 Q4: 13.302020 Q1: 13.382020 Q2: 13.592020 Q3: 16.382020 Q4: 16.912021 Q1: 15.532021 Q2: 16.232021 Q3: 18.652021 Q4: 21.942022 Q1: 21.082022 Q2: 21.102022 Q3: 21.562022 Q4: 20.092023 Q1: 19.822023 Q2: 19.482023 Q3: 20.442023 Q4: 20.042024 Q1: 20.962024 Q2: 18.072024 Q3: 19.73

Divergence watch ⚑

Quarters where tone and the forward EPS estimate moved opposite ways.

  • 2015 Q2 tone ↓ -10.5 fwd EPS ↑ +0.17 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2015 Q3 tone ↓ -2.5 fwd EPS ↑ +0.05 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2016 Q3 tone ↑ +2.3 fwd EPS ↓ -0.03 Tone rose while the forward EPS estimate was cut.
  • 2017 Q1 tone ↓ -2.4 fwd EPS ↑ +0.29 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2018 Q3 tone ↓ -7.9 fwd EPS ↑ +0.40 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2019 Q1 tone ↓ -2.3 fwd EPS ↑ +0.25 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2019 Q3 tone ↓ -4.7 fwd EPS ↑ +0.13 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2021 Q1 tone ↓ -12.0 fwd EPS ↑ +0.17 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2021 Q2 tone ↑ +9.6 fwd EPS ↓ -0.14 Tone rose while the forward EPS estimate was cut.
  • 2022 Q2 tone ↓ -4.5 fwd EPS ↑ +0.30 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2023 Q1 tone ↓ -11.1 fwd EPS ↑ +0.52 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2024 Q1 tone ↓ -9.2 fwd EPS ↑ +1.52 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2024 Q3 tone ↓ -4.1 fwd EPS ↑ +1.39 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.

Recent transcripts

CallDateSentiment ×1000Fwd EPSFwd P/E
2025 Q12025-05-06+5.3——View →
2024 Q42025-03-04+8.1——View →
2024 Q32024-11-05+3.0$13.0619.7View →
2024 Q22024-08-06+7.1$11.6618.1View →
2024 Q12024-05-07+1.4$9.5321.0View →
2023 Q42024-02-27+10.6$8.0120.0View →
2023 Q32023-11-01+1.5$6.8120.4View →
2023 Q22023-08-02-13.8$6.5119.5View →