Subtext

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG

SectorFinancials
Transcripts63
Date range2008-01-30 – 2025-05-01
Calls charted63

Sentiment timeline

Net Loughran-McDonald sentiment per call (×1000), earliest → latest.

-13-7+0+7+132007 Q42011 Q32013 Q32015 Q32017 Q32019 Q32021 Q32023 Q32007 Q4 · Overall: -1.92008 Q1 · Overall: +2.92008 Q2 · Overall: +0.82008 Q3 · Overall: -0.52008 Q4 · Overall: -4.22009 Q3 · Overall: -3.32009 Q4 · Overall: +0.82011 Q2 · Overall: +3.02011 Q3 · Overall: +2.42011 Q4 · Overall: -0.42012 Q1 · Overall: +8.12012 Q2 · Overall: +10.92012 Q3 · Overall: +10.92012 Q4 · Overall: +4.82013 Q1 · Overall: +8.22013 Q2 · Overall: +6.72013 Q3 · Overall: +7.72013 Q4 · Overall: +11.72014 Q1 · Overall: +6.92014 Q2 · Overall: +10.52014 Q3 · Overall: +9.32014 Q4 · Overall: +3.62015 Q1 · Overall: +8.62015 Q2 · Overall: +5.92015 Q3 · Overall: +6.32015 Q4 · Overall: +7.62016 Q1 · Overall: +5.72016 Q2 · Overall: +6.22016 Q3 · Overall: +6.12016 Q4 · Overall: +9.32017 Q1 · Overall: +11.02017 Q2 · Overall: +10.22017 Q3 · Overall: +0.82017 Q4 · Overall: +5.92018 Q1 · Overall: +5.92018 Q2 · Overall: +5.12018 Q3 · Overall: +9.72018 Q4 · Overall: +6.32019 Q1 · Overall: +3.52019 Q2 · Overall: +5.92019 Q3 · Overall: +5.12019 Q4 · Overall: +10.32020 Q1 · Overall: -6.22020 Q2 · Overall: +2.52020 Q3 · Overall: +3.42020 Q4 · Overall: +5.22021 Q1 · Overall: +7.52021 Q2 · Overall: +3.52021 Q3 · Overall: +6.12021 Q4 · Overall: +5.12022 Q1 · Overall: +1.82022 Q2 · Overall: +1.02022 Q3 · Overall: +1.42022 Q4 · Overall: +4.32023 Q1 · Overall: +4.32023 Q2 · Overall: +6.72023 Q3 · Overall: +10.82023 Q4 · Overall: +3.12024 Q1 · Overall: -0.62024 Q2 · Overall: +4.12024 Q3 · Overall: +5.22024 Q4 · Overall: +4.02025 Q1 · Overall: +3.7
Overall

CEO vs CFO

Average sentiment of each executive's remarks per call. Divergence is a signal.

-27-14+0+14+272007 Q42011 Q32013 Q32015 Q32017 Q32019 Q32021 Q32023 Q32008 Q2 · CEO: +0.72008 Q4 · CEO: -0.82009 Q3 · CEO: -1.72009 Q4 · CEO: +6.62011 Q2 · CEO: +13.42011 Q3 · CEO: +3.72011 Q4 · CEO: +5.12012 Q1 · CEO: +13.02012 Q2 · CEO: +23.52012 Q3 · CEO: +13.52012 Q4 · CEO: +11.92013 Q1 · CEO: +16.22013 Q2 · CEO: +10.32013 Q3 · CEO: +12.72013 Q4 · CEO: +22.02014 Q2 · CEO: +11.62014 Q3 · CEO: +16.22014 Q4 · CEO: +15.72015 Q1 · CEO: +17.02015 Q2 · CEO: +11.92016 Q1 · CEO: +14.62016 Q2 · CEO: +12.42016 Q3 · CEO: +13.32016 Q4 · CEO: +16.72017 Q1 · CEO: +20.72017 Q2 · CEO: +22.12017 Q3 · CEO: +2.42017 Q4 · CEO: +18.82018 Q4 · CEO: +15.82019 Q3 · CEO: +7.52019 Q4 · CEO: +15.42020 Q3 · CEO: +12.22020 Q4 · CEO: +7.72021 Q1 · CEO: +15.82021 Q3 · CEO: +11.82021 Q4 · CEO: +10.62022 Q1 · CEO: +4.12022 Q2 · CEO: +12.12022 Q3 · CEO: -1.52022 Q4 · CEO: +8.82023 Q3 · CEO: +17.62023 Q4 · CEO: +11.92024 Q2 · CEO: +7.02024 Q3 · CEO: +11.72024 Q4 · CEO: +9.22025 Q1 · CEO: +8.32007 Q4 · CFO: -4.42008 Q2 · CFO: +8.72008 Q3 · CFO: +5.82008 Q4 · CFO: -3.82009 Q3 · CFO: +0.92009 Q4 · CFO: +4.02011 Q2 · CFO: +4.52011 Q3 · CFO: +2.82011 Q4 · CFO: +2.12012 Q1 · CFO: +9.02012 Q2 · CFO: +8.22012 Q3 · CFO: +15.02012 Q4 · CFO: +5.42013 Q1 · CFO: +2.92013 Q2 · CFO: +9.12013 Q3 · CFO: +8.42013 Q4 · CFO: +8.42014 Q2 · CFO: +13.52014 Q3 · CFO: +6.32014 Q4 · CFO: +4.92015 Q1 · CFO: +8.52015 Q2 · CFO: +8.02015 Q3 · CFO: +3.22015 Q4 · CFO: +5.02016 Q1 · CFO: +6.62016 Q2 · CFO: +13.02016 Q3 · CFO: +9.92016 Q4 · CFO: +12.32017 Q1 · CFO: +6.22017 Q2 · CFO: +5.92017 Q3 · CFO: +3.42017 Q4 · CFO: +7.32018 Q1 · CFO: +5.02018 Q2 · CFO: +5.72018 Q3 · CFO: +13.02018 Q4 · CFO: +6.32019 Q1 · CFO: +7.72019 Q2 · CFO: +11.92019 Q3 · CFO: +8.32019 Q4 · CFO: +12.72020 Q1 · CFO: -5.42020 Q2 · CFO: +4.52020 Q3 · CFO: +3.12020 Q4 · CFO: +11.32021 Q1 · CFO: +11.62021 Q2 · CFO: +0.62021 Q3 · CFO: +8.22021 Q4 · CFO: +3.52022 Q1 · CFO: +3.22022 Q2 · CFO: -1.42022 Q3 · CFO: +5.12022 Q4 · CFO: +6.62023 Q1 · CFO: +5.92023 Q2 · CFO: +4.72023 Q3 · CFO: +9.92023 Q4 · CFO: +0.62024 Q1 · CFO: +9.22024 Q2 · CFO: +6.12024 Q3 · CFO: +10.62024 Q4 · CFO: +8.92025 Q1 · CFO: +4.4
CEOCFO

Prepared remarks vs Q&A

Scripted tone vs unscripted answers. The gap is information.

-45-22+0+22+452007 Q42011 Q32013 Q32015 Q32017 Q32019 Q32021 Q32023 Q32007 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +8.12008 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +11.32008 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +7.02008 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -1.32008 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -1.02009 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +2.12009 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +6.92011 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +13.22011 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +7.12011 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +12.12012 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +16.72012 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +11.02012 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +13.62012 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +17.62013 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +12.72013 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +14.62013 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +16.32013 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +14.52014 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +38.92014 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +5.22014 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +12.92014 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +4.42015 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +13.72015 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +7.52015 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +8.22015 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +14.92016 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +12.42016 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +17.52016 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +14.02016 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +12.32017 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +13.02017 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +15.72017 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +8.62017 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +19.42018 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +15.42018 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +12.42018 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +19.32018 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +16.82019 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +16.02019 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +20.52019 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +15.62019 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +16.12020 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +3.72020 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +17.82020 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +11.82020 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +14.22021 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +19.82021 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +8.52021 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +12.42021 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +9.72022 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +7.52022 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +8.52022 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +5.92022 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +11.02023 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +13.32023 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +13.52023 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +14.92023 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +10.12024 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +7.12024 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +7.62024 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +5.42024 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +10.72025 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +9.82007 Q4 · Q&A responses: -2.52008 Q1 · Q&A responses: +4.42008 Q2 · Q&A responses: -1.72008 Q3 · Q&A responses: +8.22008 Q4 · Q&A responses: -1.52009 Q3 · Q&A responses: -1.02009 Q4 · Q&A responses: +4.72011 Q2 · Q&A responses: +8.42011 Q3 · Q&A responses: +3.82011 Q4 · Q&A responses: -2.42012 Q1 · Q&A responses: +10.12012 Q2 · Q&A responses: +18.22012 Q3 · Q&A responses: +14.92012 Q4 · Q&A responses: +2.02013 Q1 · Q&A responses: +10.12013 Q2 · Q&A responses: +6.02013 Q3 · Q&A responses: +7.22013 Q4 · Q&A responses: +13.32014 Q1 · Q&A responses: +9.32014 Q2 · Q&A responses: +16.32014 Q3 · Q&A responses: +10.62014 Q4 · Q&A responses: +8.72015 Q1 · Q&A responses: +12.82015 Q2 · Q&A responses: +11.52015 Q3 · Q&A responses: +6.82015 Q4 · Q&A responses: +7.42016 Q1 · Q&A responses: +10.52016 Q2 · Q&A responses: +8.42016 Q3 · Q&A responses: +9.22016 Q4 · Q&A responses: +14.62017 Q1 · Q&A responses: +15.22017 Q2 · Q&A responses: +11.42017 Q3 · Q&A responses: -0.82017 Q4 · Q&A responses: +6.32018 Q1 · Q&A responses: +7.02018 Q2 · Q&A responses: +7.32018 Q3 · Q&A responses: +10.82018 Q4 · Q&A responses: +5.82019 Q1 · Q&A responses: +4.62019 Q2 · Q&A responses: +8.52019 Q3 · Q&A responses: -0.52019 Q4 · Q&A responses: +12.82020 Q1 · Q&A responses: -3.72020 Q2 · Q&A responses: +7.42020 Q3 · Q&A responses: +5.52020 Q4 · Q&A responses: +5.92021 Q1 · Q&A responses: +5.12021 Q2 · Q&A responses: +10.22021 Q3 · Q&A responses: +8.92021 Q4 · Q&A responses: +5.62022 Q1 · Q&A responses: +1.32022 Q2 · Q&A responses: -2.02022 Q3 · Q&A responses: -0.82022 Q4 · Q&A responses: +2.52023 Q1 · Q&A responses: +6.42023 Q2 · Q&A responses: +9.72023 Q3 · Q&A responses: +14.22023 Q4 · Q&A responses: +4.52024 Q1 · Q&A responses: +7.32024 Q2 · Q&A responses: +5.62024 Q3 · Q&A responses: +15.02024 Q4 · Q&A responses: +7.82025 Q1 · Q&A responses: +3.8
Prepared remarksQ&A responses

Tone vs forward expectations

Management tone next to Wall Street's forward-looking numbers (glopardo): the 12-month forward EPS estimate and the forward P/E per call.

Forward EPS estimate

$1.77$6.99$12.212007 Q42011 Q32013 Q32015 Q32017 Q32019 Q32021 Q32023 Q32014 Q1: $2.492014 Q2: $2.692014 Q3: $2.832014 Q4: $2.812015 Q1: $2.852015 Q2: $2.882015 Q3: $2.872015 Q4: $2.852016 Q1: $2.852016 Q2: $2.962016 Q3: $3.002016 Q4: $3.052017 Q1: $3.112017 Q2: $3.202017 Q3: $3.272017 Q4: $3.352018 Q1: $3.692018 Q2: $3.672018 Q3: $3.812018 Q4: $3.922019 Q1: $3.982019 Q2: $3.982019 Q3: $4.092019 Q4: $4.192020 Q1: $4.282020 Q2: $4.122020 Q3: $4.492020 Q4: $4.702021 Q1: $4.922021 Q2: $5.252021 Q3: $5.662021 Q4: $5.922022 Q1: $6.952022 Q2: $8.242022 Q3: $8.462022 Q4: $8.672023 Q1: $9.092023 Q2: $9.312023 Q3: $9.722023 Q4: $10.232024 Q1: $10.492024 Q2: $10.742024 Q3: $11.062024 Q4: $11.49

Forward P/E

13.7521.5729.392007 Q42011 Q32013 Q32015 Q32017 Q32019 Q32021 Q32023 Q32014 Q1: 18.792014 Q2: 17.242014 Q3: 16.112014 Q4: 16.692015 Q1: 16.772015 Q2: 17.102015 Q3: 14.832015 Q4: 14.922016 Q1: 15.052016 Q2: 15.662016 Q3: 16.492016 Q4: 16.472017 Q1: 18.342017 Q2: 18.122017 Q3: 18.342017 Q4: 19.172018 Q1: 19.162018 Q2: 18.002018 Q3: 19.862018 Q4: 18.702019 Q1: 19.892019 Q2: 21.782019 Q3: 21.962019 Q4: 22.542020 Q1: 16.922020 Q2: 23.842020 Q3: 22.962020 Q4: 26.902021 Q1: 26.082021 Q2: 27.012021 Q3: 26.522021 Q4: 28.312022 Q1: 23.412022 Q2: 18.532022 Q3: 21.882022 Q4: 22.272023 Q1: 19.482023 Q2: 22.522023 Q3: 23.562023 Q4: 23.972024 Q1: 24.342024 Q2: 24.382024 Q3: 26.332024 Q4: 24.24

Divergence watch ⚑

Quarters where tone and the forward EPS estimate moved opposite ways.

  • 2015 Q2 tone ↓ -2.7 fwd EPS ↑ +0.04 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2017 Q3 tone ↓ -9.4 fwd EPS ↑ +0.07 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2018 Q4 tone ↓ -3.4 fwd EPS ↑ +0.11 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2019 Q1 tone ↓ -2.8 fwd EPS ↑ +0.06 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2020 Q1 tone ↓ -16.6 fwd EPS ↑ +0.09 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2020 Q2 tone ↑ +8.8 fwd EPS ↓ -0.16 Tone rose while the forward EPS estimate was cut.
  • 2021 Q2 tone ↓ -4.0 fwd EPS ↑ +0.33 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2022 Q1 tone ↓ -3.3 fwd EPS ↑ +1.03 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2023 Q4 tone ↓ -7.8 fwd EPS ↑ +0.51 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2024 Q1 tone ↓ -3.7 fwd EPS ↑ +0.26 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.

Recent transcripts

CallDateSentiment ×1000Fwd EPSFwd P/E
2025 Q12025-05-01+3.7——View →
2024 Q42025-01-30+4.0$11.4924.2View →
2024 Q32024-10-24+5.2$11.0626.3View →
2024 Q22024-07-25+4.1$10.7424.4View →
2024 Q12024-04-25-0.6$10.4924.3View →
2023 Q42024-01-26+3.1$10.2324.0View →
2023 Q32023-10-26+10.8$9.7223.6View →
2023 Q22023-07-28+6.7$9.3122.5View →