Subtext

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL

SectorFinancials
Transcripts62
Date range2008-02-12 – 2025-04-30
Calls charted62

Sentiment timeline

Net Loughran-McDonald sentiment per call (×1000), earliest → latest.

-21-10+0+10+212007 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q42017 Q42019 Q42021 Q42023 Q42007 Q4 · Overall: -3.32008 Q1 · Overall: -1.82008 Q2 · Overall: -1.82008 Q3 · Overall: -1.62008 Q4 · Overall: -6.72009 Q3 · Overall: +2.62011 Q2 · Overall: -3.22011 Q3 · Overall: -0.82011 Q4 · Overall: +1.22012 Q1 · Overall: -0.92012 Q2 · Overall: +1.62012 Q3 · Overall: -7.42012 Q4 · Overall: -1.02013 Q1 · Overall: +3.02013 Q2 · Overall: +1.32013 Q3 · Overall: +2.22013 Q4 · Overall: +0.42014 Q1 · Overall: -0.32014 Q2 · Overall: -2.22014 Q3 · Overall: -4.92014 Q4 · Overall: -0.42015 Q1 · Overall: -1.92015 Q2 · Overall: -2.62015 Q3 · Overall: +0.52015 Q4 · Overall: +2.02016 Q1 · Overall: +0.22016 Q2 · Overall: -5.12016 Q3 · Overall: -2.52016 Q4 · Overall: -3.02017 Q1 · Overall: -3.62017 Q2 · Overall: -9.72017 Q3 · Overall: -11.02017 Q4 · Overall: -3.82018 Q1 · Overall: -5.12018 Q2 · Overall: +1.62018 Q3 · Overall: -2.42018 Q4 · Overall: -2.32019 Q1 · Overall: -3.62019 Q2 · Overall: -0.22019 Q3 · Overall: -0.12019 Q4 · Overall: +1.92020 Q1 · Overall: -17.92020 Q2 · Overall: -6.52020 Q3 · Overall: -3.82020 Q4 · Overall: +4.72021 Q1 · Overall: -1.12021 Q2 · Overall: -0.82021 Q3 · Overall: +0.92021 Q4 · Overall: +3.32022 Q1 · Overall: +0.42022 Q2 · Overall: -1.02022 Q3 · Overall: +1.02022 Q4 · Overall: +7.32023 Q1 · Overall: +4.72023 Q2 · Overall: +1.82023 Q3 · Overall: +1.32023 Q4 · Overall: -0.12024 Q1 · Overall: +2.12024 Q2 · Overall: +0.42024 Q3 · Overall: +1.52024 Q4 · Overall: -2.22025 Q1 · Overall: +2.0
Overall

CEO vs CFO

Average sentiment of each executive's remarks per call. Divergence is a signal.

-50-25+0+25+502007 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q42017 Q42019 Q42021 Q42023 Q42007 Q4 · CEO: -6.32008 Q1 · CEO: -0.32008 Q2 · CEO: -0.62008 Q3 · CEO: +1.42008 Q4 · CEO: -4.12009 Q3 · CEO: +6.22011 Q2 · CEO: +0.52011 Q3 · CEO: +0.62011 Q4 · CEO: +4.92012 Q1 · CEO: +6.92012 Q2 · CEO: +7.32012 Q3 · CEO: -5.42012 Q4 · CEO: +4.02013 Q1 · CEO: +7.12013 Q2 · CEO: +6.22013 Q3 · CEO: +6.22013 Q4 · CEO: +7.32014 Q1 · CEO: +3.32014 Q2 · CEO: +0.02014 Q3 · CEO: -0.82014 Q4 · CEO: -1.42015 Q1 · CEO: -0.42015 Q2 · CEO: +3.72015 Q3 · CEO: +1.82015 Q4 · CEO: +3.42016 Q1 · CEO: +2.52016 Q2 · CEO: -5.62016 Q3 · CEO: -1.62017 Q1 · CEO: -2.72017 Q2 · CEO: -11.52017 Q3 · CEO: -14.52017 Q4 · CEO: +16.12018 Q1 · CEO: -3.92018 Q2 · CEO: +6.12018 Q3 · CEO: -3.12007 Q4 · CFO: -43.92008 Q1 · CFO: +0.02008 Q2 · CFO: +12.82008 Q3 · CFO: +22.32008 Q4 · CFO: -6.62009 Q3 · CFO: +6.12011 Q2 · CFO: -2.32011 Q3 · CFO: +7.32011 Q4 · CFO: +1.42012 Q1 · CFO: -3.52012 Q2 · CFO: +1.32012 Q3 · CFO: -1.02012 Q4 · CFO: +0.02013 Q1 · CFO: +5.52013 Q2 · CFO: +1.92013 Q3 · CFO: +1.62013 Q4 · CFO: -0.82014 Q1 · CFO: -2.62014 Q2 · CFO: +1.42014 Q3 · CFO: -4.62014 Q4 · CFO: +3.52015 Q1 · CFO: -2.12015 Q2 · CFO: -5.92015 Q3 · CFO: +0.82015 Q4 · CFO: +1.12016 Q1 · CFO: +1.02016 Q2 · CFO: -3.02016 Q3 · CFO: -3.12017 Q1 · CFO: -5.02017 Q2 · CFO: -5.22017 Q3 · CFO: -11.42017 Q4 · CFO: -11.62018 Q1 · CFO: -6.22018 Q2 · CFO: +2.92018 Q3 · CFO: -0.5
CEOCFO

Prepared remarks vs Q&A

Scripted tone vs unscripted answers. The gap is information.

-35-17+0+17+352007 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q42017 Q42019 Q42021 Q42023 Q42007 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -0.42008 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +2.42008 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +1.02008 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +3.32008 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -1.72009 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +9.42011 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +5.32011 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +6.12011 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +10.52012 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +14.12012 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +14.72012 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +8.12012 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +3.02013 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +8.72013 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +6.32013 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +4.82013 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +7.92014 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +1.92014 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +1.12014 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -3.52014 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +3.42015 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +3.42015 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -3.02015 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +1.62015 Q4 · Prepared remarks: -1.22016 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +7.32016 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +1.02016 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +2.12016 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +21.22017 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +2.62017 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -3.92017 Q3 · Prepared remarks: -15.82017 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +2.52018 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -2.92018 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +10.52018 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +4.62018 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +2.92019 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +3.32019 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +6.32019 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +0.52019 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +7.82020 Q1 · Prepared remarks: -14.02020 Q2 · Prepared remarks: -1.72020 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +10.52020 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +12.62021 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +4.82021 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +6.32021 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +5.32021 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +11.32022 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +12.02022 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +10.62022 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +6.92022 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +20.72023 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +30.32023 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +17.62023 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +13.22023 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +18.82024 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +0.02024 Q2 · Prepared remarks: +19.22024 Q3 · Prepared remarks: +16.32024 Q4 · Prepared remarks: +7.92025 Q1 · Prepared remarks: +11.72007 Q4 · Q&A responses: -6.72008 Q1 · Q&A responses: -1.52008 Q2 · Q&A responses: +0.92008 Q3 · Q&A responses: +0.32008 Q4 · Q&A responses: -8.02009 Q3 · Q&A responses: +4.62011 Q2 · Q&A responses: -2.92011 Q3 · Q&A responses: +1.32011 Q4 · Q&A responses: +0.02012 Q1 · Q&A responses: -1.82012 Q2 · Q&A responses: +1.22012 Q3 · Q&A responses: -10.92012 Q4 · Q&A responses: +2.12013 Q1 · Q&A responses: +5.22013 Q2 · Q&A responses: +3.82013 Q3 · Q&A responses: +4.42013 Q4 · Q&A responses: +0.22014 Q1 · Q&A responses: +1.12014 Q2 · Q&A responses: -0.22014 Q3 · Q&A responses: -3.62014 Q4 · Q&A responses: -0.52015 Q1 · Q&A responses: -3.72015 Q2 · Q&A responses: +1.42015 Q3 · Q&A responses: +1.32015 Q4 · Q&A responses: +5.92016 Q1 · Q&A responses: +1.02016 Q2 · Q&A responses: -6.02016 Q3 · Q&A responses: -2.92016 Q4 · Q&A responses: -3.42017 Q1 · Q&A responses: -4.82017 Q2 · Q&A responses: -11.22017 Q3 · Q&A responses: -7.32017 Q4 · Q&A responses: -4.72018 Q1 · Q&A responses: -5.82018 Q2 · Q&A responses: +0.92018 Q3 · Q&A responses: -6.62018 Q4 · Q&A responses: -8.02019 Q1 · Q&A responses: -1.02019 Q2 · Q&A responses: +0.02019 Q3 · Q&A responses: +2.52019 Q4 · Q&A responses: +1.42020 Q1 · Q&A responses: -18.12020 Q2 · Q&A responses: -5.72020 Q3 · Q&A responses: -3.02020 Q4 · Q&A responses: +4.42021 Q1 · Q&A responses: -1.02021 Q2 · Q&A responses: -1.02021 Q3 · Q&A responses: +4.62021 Q4 · Q&A responses: +2.22022 Q1 · Q&A responses: -1.72022 Q2 · Q&A responses: -4.32022 Q3 · Q&A responses: +0.42022 Q4 · Q&A responses: +3.92023 Q1 · Q&A responses: -0.92023 Q2 · Q&A responses: +2.82023 Q3 · Q&A responses: +0.92023 Q4 · Q&A responses: +1.22024 Q1 · Q&A responses: +3.52024 Q2 · Q&A responses: -3.92024 Q3 · Q&A responses: +1.62024 Q4 · Q&A responses: -2.22025 Q1 · Q&A responses: +2.2
Prepared remarksQ&A responses

Tone vs forward expectations

Management tone next to Wall Street's forward-looking numbers (glopardo): the 12-month forward EPS estimate and the forward P/E per call.

Forward EPS estimate

$0.56$5.14$9.732007 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q42017 Q42019 Q42021 Q42023 Q42014 Q1: $1.192014 Q2: $1.242014 Q3: $1.252014 Q4: $1.252015 Q1: $1.312015 Q2: $1.382015 Q3: $1.382015 Q4: $1.372016 Q1: $1.402016 Q2: $1.422016 Q3: $1.542016 Q4: $1.732017 Q1: $1.852017 Q2: $1.912017 Q3: $1.952017 Q4: $2.052018 Q1: $2.142018 Q2: $2.212018 Q3: $2.342018 Q4: $2.432019 Q1: $2.612019 Q2: $2.752019 Q3: $2.912019 Q4: $2.952020 Q1: $2.992020 Q2: $1.662020 Q3: $2.272020 Q4: $2.792021 Q1: $3.182021 Q2: $3.432021 Q3: $3.842021 Q4: $4.342022 Q1: $4.662022 Q2: $4.762022 Q3: $5.152022 Q4: $5.512023 Q1: $6.132023 Q2: $6.562023 Q3: $7.182023 Q4: $7.832024 Q1: $8.132024 Q2: $8.732024 Q3: $9.10

Forward P/E

8.3813.8419.312007 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q42017 Q42019 Q42021 Q42023 Q42014 Q1: 16.292014 Q2: 15.482014 Q3: 14.512014 Q4: 15.502015 Q1: 15.932015 Q2: 16.072015 Q3: 17.042015 Q4: 17.072016 Q1: 16.632016 Q2: 16.212016 Q3: 17.482016 Q4: 16.662017 Q1: 17.232017 Q2: 16.452017 Q3: 16.752017 Q4: 14.722018 Q1: 13.152018 Q2: 12.422018 Q3: 12.882018 Q4: 10.872019 Q1: 12.422019 Q2: 13.152019 Q3: 14.072019 Q4: 14.352020 Q1: 9.192020 Q2: 18.562020 Q3: 13.512020 Q4: 12.692021 Q1: 11.812021 Q2: 11.482021 Q3: 10.252021 Q4: 10.122022 Q1: 10.022022 Q2: 9.242022 Q3: 9.132022 Q4: 10.952023 Q1: 10.242023 Q2: 10.682023 Q3: 10.912023 Q4: 10.012024 Q1: 11.202024 Q2: 11.552024 Q3: 12.43

Divergence watch ⚑

Quarters where tone and the forward EPS estimate moved opposite ways.

  • 2016 Q2 tone ↓ -5.2 fwd EPS ↑ +0.02 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2017 Q2 tone ↓ -6.1 fwd EPS ↑ +0.06 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2018 Q3 tone ↓ -4.0 fwd EPS ↑ +0.12 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2020 Q1 tone ↓ -19.8 fwd EPS ↑ +0.04 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2020 Q2 tone ↑ +11.4 fwd EPS ↓ -1.34 Tone rose while the forward EPS estimate was cut.
  • 2021 Q1 tone ↓ -5.8 fwd EPS ↑ +0.39 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2022 Q1 tone ↓ -2.8 fwd EPS ↑ +0.32 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2023 Q1 tone ↓ -2.6 fwd EPS ↑ +0.62 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.
  • 2023 Q2 tone ↓ -2.9 fwd EPS ↑ +0.43 Tone cooled even as the forward EPS estimate rose.

Recent transcripts

CallDateSentiment ×1000Fwd EPSFwd P/E
2025 Q12025-04-30+2.0——View →
2024 Q42025-02-11-2.2——View →
2024 Q32024-10-31+1.5$9.1012.4View →
2024 Q22024-07-31+0.4$8.7311.6View →
2024 Q12024-04-30+2.1$8.1311.2View →
2023 Q42024-02-15-0.1$7.8310.0View →
2023 Q32023-10-31+1.3$7.1810.9View →
2023 Q22023-07-27+1.8$6.5610.7View →