Xcel Energy Inc. — 2024 Q1
Transcript
Each turn shows the speaker, their inferred role, the section, and that turn's net sentiment (×1000).
Hello, and welcome to Xcel Energy's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded.
Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2024 First Quarter Earnings Call. Joining me today are Bob Frenzel, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer questions if needed.
Thanks Paul, and good morning, and welcome, everyone. It's been 2 months since wildfires impacted our Texas neighbors and before Brian walks through our financial results, I'd like to discuss the actions we're taking to protect the public and to strengthen our systems resiliency in the states that we serve.
first, immediate near-term response; second, regulatory activities needed to address comprehensive wildfire mitigation and resiliency plans; third, additional state and federal legislation that could be valuable.
Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our financial results. Xcel Energy had earnings of $0.88 per share for the first quarter of 2024 compared to $0.76 per share in 2023. The increase in earnings reflects our investment of approximately $8 billion over the last 5 quarters to improve resiliency and enable clean energy for our customers while delivering economic growth and vitality for our communities.
the impact of electric and natural gas rate reviews to recover our capital investments increased earnings by $0.12 per share. Lower O&M expenses increased earnings by $0.06 per share, reflecting lower labor and benefit costs, lower bad debt expenses and gains from a land sale for a data center.
[Operator Instructions]
Thanks for all the information today. I guess a couple of questions to kick it off. You have a lot of resource plan activity going on across SPS and the RFPs seeming like they're coming out this summer. Just how are you kind of thinking about competition for capital within the current CapEx plan now that you're seemingly accelerating some resiliency plans at SPS and NIPSCO maybe you can kind of remind us what's incremental [ versus not? ] And then also just touch on your financing plan and [ it needs.]
Yes, certainly, Nick. If I go touch upon all that the multiple parts of that question, just please be feel free to follow up. Absolutely we're pretty excited about the upcoming RFP and SPS. We talked about it before seeking a range of generation between 5,000 and 10,000 megawatts combination of renewables and dispatchable firm capacity. And we'll look to launch that RFP in July. It's a little bit of a longer timeline. So I'll help you understand in terms of how -- what's underlying.
I think I'll just add 1 thing on the Brian's comment. I think you asked about sort of relative competitiveness of the company. We would expect to offer in our own development projects into the SPS proposal, and we've proven that we -- with our scale and utility-owned wind and our growing expertise in solar and storage, we think we would be very competitive for some of the generation in Southwestern Public Service RFP process.
Got it. That's really helpful. And then I guess just -- and you did hit all the points. To put a finer point on the equity needs, I guess, do you just see really kind of no change to current plans, even with the multiple a little bit lower here?
Yes. So the way we think about it, obviously, like I said and reiterated where we expect to be within the growth range. And that takes into account our lower multiple impacts over the past quarter, certainly. As I mentioned, we think about the significant investment opportunities going forward. And it's important to have a strong balance sheet. We try to maintain that strong balance sheet.
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
So just on the Texas fire. You mentioned the legislative report coming out in May. Just what should we expect to be coming out in that? Is that -- who caused it? Or how should we think about what's going to come out in that report, like we focus on?
Look, at a macro level, I was pretty encouraged by the process we went through with the Texas House and the committee. I think one of the tenets of good risk mitigation is involving all the stakeholders who have a hand in doing that. And I think the committee hearings were a pretty good example of getting all -- mostly all of the interested parties and participants in our [ room ] proactively talking about the issues. And on balance, I think the sessions were productive, still the committee was looking to be prospective and gathering information for future solutions.
Okay. And then just on the damage estimate that you took as you've noted, I think, in your release a lot of kind of what's in there, what's not in there. One clarification just is how about not punitive damages, but noneconomic damages. Is that in your estimate or not in your estimate?
I think, yes, Steve. I'll handle this one, and I'll give you [ key helpers], obviously, we'll point to our disclosures. But I'll give you a little bit more color in terms of that $215 million in the lower end of.
Yes, that was great.
And here's very large that some of our pockets it includes. Residential properties and related losses, cattle and feed, agricultural structures and fencing, noneconomic damages and then a number of other items. So obviously, this is subject to changes again additional information since we're still early in the process.
That's helpful. And then just on a follow-up on the question about equity. Just given some of the overhang that's been caused by this, how are you -- are you kind of revisiting like other options of getting equity than just issuing it? Are there asset sales or other things that you might consider? Or is that just not as attractive as just funding with equity?
Obviously, it's something you'd expect. Bob and I to evaluate in the normal course, what other options are there. I think we've been -- what you've seen from us is that we were a pretty straightforward conservative financing plan from a company perspective. So I don't -- I think right now, that's our current plan of action. I think I've been on record about not at all interested in minority interest sale in the line. So that's our fair plan of action as we sit here today.
Okay. And then last thing on the data center growth. So just on the facility at the old Sherco site, how was that being served? And then just, Bob, you mentioned talking to a lot of others. Could you just talk to kind of how they're viewing your territory and just making sure you're able to kind of do this in a way that is kind of good for the broader customer base?
That's a great question. In the conversation and Steve, and it's very topical, both inside the walls of the building as well as around the industry. On your specific questions with regard to the Sherco site, the site get powered with grid energy. And as you know, we're the first company to commit to being a 100% carbon-free electricity.
Steve, I just want to -- just add a little bit of color to that. I think you kind of hinted that, how do we think about it from a current customer perspective [ build ]? I think as we bring on new data centers and is something we did with Meta and the approval of Meta in Minnesota. We make sure it's a win-win for our existing customers. That's really important as we continue to move forward with this significant opportunity.
Our next question is from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Just want to continue with the data center question with one more finer point here, I guess, as it relates to SPS, just given the need for power and given the very cheap natural gas in that area, I don't -- wouldn't necessarily think of SPS as a place that would -- data centers would target, but just wondering if what you're seeing there if cheap Power is a draw? Just any thoughts in general?
Yes. Jeremy, I think -- I mean, as Bob has mentioned, we're seeing data center interest across all our service territories. And so service are preferred to have maybe a little different point of attractiveness. And then you hit SPS as on the lowest C&I rates in the country. So interest there. But I would say the other significant growth that we continue to see in SPS, and this is really what you're seeing come through our numbers now when you look at the year-over-year growth from the C&I perspective is the oil and gas expansion in the Permian Basin there and [ averaging ] they're doing from an electrification perspective.
Got it. Certainly, New Mexico, at the low end of the cost curve for production in North America there. So maybe continuing with Texas a little bit more and following up on the wildfires. Just wondering if Texas caps noneconomic damages or just any other details you could provide there?
Yes. Right now, there is no cap on noneconomic damages in Texas. There is a cap on [ punitive damages ] this 2x economic damages falls up to [ 750k ] cap for noneconomic.
Got it. And then looking forward to the Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plan filing, there's been some press in the state around recent deenergization in Colorado. Can you speak to the opportunity for sectionalization or other efforts to reduce customer impact? Any other nuances to the filing you could share with us?
Yes. Jeremy, it's Bob. Thanks for the question. First, I'm really proud of what the team did in Colorado in executing on behalf of public safety during a volatile weather event. As you can imagine, the -- [ because we have the second ] file on our wildfire mitigation plan, it's going to have a lot of continuation of the existing plan and probably incremental areas that we'd be looking for. But as I think about the big buckets of opportunity there, really early warning capabilities.
Got it. Very helpful, there. And just a last one, if I could, as it relates to gas cases in Minnesota and Colorado, any updates there that we should be thinking about or conversations with stakeholders and regulators on those cases and how you feel about those cases.
Yes. And just I'll get on first, the Minnesota natural gas case because that's probably the one that spurred us along, given that we just received intervenor testimony and the Department of Commerce recommended a $44 million increase of a 9.4% ROE. We have hearings in mid-July, but we'll certainly look [ into this ] opportunity to engage with our stakeholders to see if we've reached settlement, which we did in the last Minnesota gas rate case. So we'll look to engage, like I said, here is our July. So from now until July, we'll look to engage there.
Our next question is from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Thanks for all the details so far. Maybe just on the resiliency plan filing at SPS that you expect in late '24. Can you just remind us of the timing to getting that ultimately approved and when that spend would come into play? And then I guess any early views on kind of the sizing of that potential filing or in addition to the wildfire mitigation piece that you flagged what other buckets of spend do you think will be important there.
Carly, it's Brian. As I said, we're just looking to put that filing together, it will be late in Q4. So from a timing perspective, you probably into Q3 of the following year for it to get approved. So I think from an overall perspective, I mean, if you look at some of our kind of just distribution spend in SPS and you look at our 5-year capital plan, and what could be [ albacore ]. Obviously, we're currently focus on the Colorado WNP and we'll take a lot of those programs and apply it to SPS, but tailored because SPS is a very different geography than call it Texas is very different geography when we think about what should we be doing to have risk mitigation from wildfire perspective, and so we'll tailor it. But I think we'll give you more color as we get further development of that resiliency plan later this year.
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then the follow-up is just on O&M, nice benefit during the quarter there. Is that just a function of kind of year-over-year timing? Or is there a potential downside to that annual guidance on O&M being up 1% to 2% for the year?
Yes, good question. I think from our perspective, really have, as you kind of noted, we haven't changed our guidance for the year-end even though we had a significant quarter-over-quarter change. So I look at it more from where we are from a budget perspective which you don't see. And we're slightly has our budget for the first quarter. But from where we sit, I think it's early in the year, that our goal is just to land within that 1% to 2% O&M guidance range as [ we sit here.]
Our next question is from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Just 2 quick ones. One is any major change in the company's cost to ensure the company's operations.
Anthony. Yes, that's a good question as we think about it. So I assume you're asking specifically about wildfire insurance or excess liability.
Yes, I do. Yes.
I think yes, all our other programs, I would say, are relatively stable or don't have significant challenges. As I think about wildfire insurance and just let's say for the wildfire insurance versus the overall access liability is they are 2 different things. I think this is a very key industry issue, both at the state and federal level. And if you've been following with EEI, this is one of their top priorities this year from a federal perspective.
Great. And then just one last one. I think, Bob, you had mentioned pursuing some proactive legislation for wildfire risk. Would you be willing to let like hey, the maybe top 3 things? Or what are your goals in getting the legislation passed, like what's -- would you like to be included in your maybe first wave of legislation pass, whether it's limits on noneconomic liability? Or I'm just curious, any color on that you would provide.
Anthony, thanks for the question. As Brian said, this is a big and emerging national issue. And we've seen pressure both on the retail side of insurance, homeowners struggling to get homeowner insurance that protects from wildfire risk, and you're seeing it in the commercial side on the wholesale side as well.
Yes. Just to add a little bit to that. I think as Bob talked about importance of that insurance backstop and filling a WNP, but I think there's also an aspect there is if you're following [ the plans of the WMP to the presumption of routes ] which I think is important, too, and also looking at a limit job liability or limit on damages.
Our next question is from Sophie Karp with KeyBanc.
I have a couple of questions, today. So on the Texas fire, can you clarify how, I guess, the claims system and the litigations that's been filed against you are going to well work together for [ like I have a better word ]. Like are people who are litigating, not filing claims or can they do both? Like how does it work?
Sophie, yes. I mean, so first of all, I'll talk about the claims process and still early, but we obviously encourage people to submit claims. It was [ 46 ] so far. But how it works is anyone can submit a claim, and when they submit that claim, they don't waive their right to pursue a lawsuit. But if there is a claim settlement, then that absolves or release any other potential lawsuits that they could file.
Got it. Got it. And then my other question on Colorado and next to the gas got this clarification from the commission there that they want the utilities to pursue non-pipeline alternatives, I guess, for gas in Colorado. Could you comment on that and just sort of how that will impact your investment in that state, particularly with gas?
Sophie, it's Bob. Look, we've got a number of gas proceedings in Colorado over the last year. I think you're referring to our clean heat plan. And we think that was an industry leading or very unique filing and proactive on the company and the commissions' part to move forward that. Big picture, I think they're sitting, they're looking at the gas system as an effective delivery of energy but making sure that if we've got capacity need from a growing customer base out there that we're looking at something other than pipeline alternatives.
So the non-pipeline alternative is basically a word for electrification? Or could that be something like increasing like compression station output or something like that? Like just kind of -- what is that?
Yes. Sophie, so actually, you bring up increasing compression station, it's certainly an opportunity. I think generally it's thought of -- what are the electrification opportunities. Say, there's going to be a new neighborhood builds. What is the alternative, it's -- okay, you saw that [indiscernible] gas and expansion of a pipeline or what are the alternatives from electrification perspective. So that's probably the best way to think about it.
Our next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi.
What role do you see PSPS having in terms of your wildfire mitigation plans? And are there any initiatives that you could take proactively to gain more stakeholder support to be able to implement that on a go-forward basis?
Ryan, it's Bob. Certainly, we think of PSPS as a kind of a tool of last resort. But public safety is our priority in making sure that our communities are protected in volatile wind events and wildfire risk case is really important to us as well. So are there opportunities for us to gain more public support, of course, there are. And the ways that we can improve our own performance as we, [ again ] more muscle here, because this is something that I don't love to do. But when we have to do it, I think there's areas of improvement that we as a company have identified and are working with our Colorado Commission to do so. And that includes early notification, excellence in outage maps, something I talked about earlier on segmentation.
And then shifting gears on the financing plan as security prices continue to move. How do you look at maybe assessing a time to come to market for capital raises. I think in earlier question, you suggested the avoidance of asset sales, but any color around response to maybe different security prices and how that can impact your financing plan?
Ryan, I think a little bit as the color I provided before is obviously, overall, we believe our growth plans from an investment perspective, a long-term EPS growth perspective impact and same in our chance of maintaining a strong balance sheet. What I talked about not necessarily in avoidance, but how do we look at the timing of equity and the timing of capital, particularly on the timing of the equity, given that we have a strong balance sheet, is we can look at being flexible there. But I would expect that when we're investing $39 billion of capital at a 9% rate base growth. That does come with the financings. And generally, our prior financing year in and year out, that's aligned with the capital spend.
Okay. And then just last question, in terms of CapEx outlook, given maybe acceleration of infrastructure build-out in North America. Are you seeing any indications that maybe costs will come higher for what's already slated to be built in the coming years. Any color you could share on that?
Yes. Ryan, it's Bob. Look, I think as we see reindustrialization, we see data center build-out. Certainly, there can be cost pressures that come from basic materials and construction materials like concrete, steel, and things like that. I think we take our best estimates when we put our capital forecast out, but something we watch pretty closely.
Our next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Just -- I apologize if you guys have gone over this. But just on the [ NUC ] life extension, could you remind me what the impact financially is. Have you guys already -- it varies from company to company how the depreciation impact is reco -- when it's recognized, et cetera. I was just wondering if you could review that for me shortly, quickly if it's not a problem.
Paul. Yes, you're referencing the resource plan that we just filed here in Q1 related to the extension of Monticello. So Monticello we already extended to 2040, and we've recognized that depreciation in terms of lower customer bills. So we're looking to extend [ Monticello] from 2040 to 2050. And then Prairie Island both units [ 20 ] years, so we'll go from the early 2030s to the early 2050s.
Okay. Great. But just is there any potential for regulatory -- sort of positive regulatory lag? Or does it -- are you guys planning on having immediately impact customer rates?
No, this would likely just be captured either how to defer here or likely if we're in a multiyear plan to have a [ true ] mechanism part.
Thank you. As we have no further questions in the queue, I'd like to turn it back over to CFO, Brian Van Abel for any closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. Please contact our Investor Relations team with any follow-up questions.
Thank you very much. That concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Hosts, you may stay on the line.