Molson Coors Beverage Company — 2024 Q1
Transcript
Each turn shows the speaker, their inferred role, the section, and that turn's net sentiment (×1000).
Good day, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. You can find related slides on the Investor Relations page of the Molson Coors website. With that, I'll hand over to Greg Tierney, Vice President of FP&A Commercial Finance and Investor Relations.
All right. Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today, we look forward to taking your questions. [Operator Instructions] Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law. GAAP reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our earnings release.
Thanks, Greg, and thank you all for joining us this morning. In the first quarter, Molson Coors once again delivered against our commitments, growing the top and bottom line while making strong progress on our acceleration plan. We grew net sales revenue by over 10%. And we grew underlying pretax income by nearly 69%, and we drove significant margin improvement in the first quarter. This morning, we reaffirmed our full year guidance, which Tracey will discuss in more detail shortly.
Thank you, Gavin. We are proud to report another strong quarter. Net sales revenue grew an impressive 10.1% on strong Americas volume and favorable net pricing across both business units. This top line strength, coupled with volume leverage and ongoing cost savings drove meaningful margin expansion, while we continue to invest strongly behind our brands. As a result, underlying pretax income grew 68.8%. Now many of the details can be found in our earnings release and slides, so I'll focus on our prepared remarks on some of the key metrics and drivers of our quarterly performance, and our outlook for the year.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.
All right. I guess I have a question on your quarter and then guidance. I guess, first, were your Q1 results better than you expected or more in line with your expectations? And maybe I'm asking specifically on the shipments, given some of the items you called out? And then you did reaffirm your guidance for the year out of prudence given the softer industry data we're seeing in early April.
Thanks, Bonnie. Look, I would say for the first quarter, our shipments certainly were higher than what we were expecting. We were obviously planning to ship higher than our brand of volumes. But our supply chain team did a tremendous job actually exceeding our expectations each and every week. As you know, we have a strike down in Fort Worth, and we have a contingency plan and the contingency plan is working better than we had originally expected.
Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.
So I was just hoping, Gavin, what you said now about April I mean, a couple of questions there. If you can help us with the STRs in April? And where do you think the softness coming from? Is that from the [carry] across alc income levels on mostly low-income consumer? And on that, if you're seeing anything to call out in the economy segment?
Thanks, Andrea. Yes, a lot of questions in that question. So let me try and cover it off. And let me start with April, right? I mean, obviously, I understand the desire to monitor the industry on a week-by-week basis as we lap the upheaval, which we saw in 2023. We did highlight months ago that Q2 comps were going to have a lot of noise.
Our next question comes from Bill Kirk from ROTH MKM.
So after 1Q with the underlying income be, the guidance now seems to imply underlying income down low single digits for the rest of the year. And I guess the question is why would that be if price/mix is ahead of COGS per hectoliter inflation, M&A is flat or MG&A is flat and you have the shelf space gains why would the next 9 months be down year-over-year for underlying income?
Well, thanks, Bill, and good morning to you. Look, I think I would draw your attention to the comment I just made around shipments, right? If you look at what happened in Q1, we were about 750,000 hectare liters shipped higher than brand volume. If you look at what we did last year, it was 100,000 hectoliters higher than brand volume. So we have 650,000 hectoliters above consumption, which we would expect to come back in the next 9 months, mostly, as I said, in the second half of the year.
Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS.
I don't want to kind of beat a dead horse here, but Gavin, you and the team have been pretty confident in your ability to hold share as you lap these gains. And we can all look at the data, and I don't want to overemphasize [indiscernible], but we are starting to see both Coors Light and Miller Lite lose share. Now it doesn't seem to be at the expense of your largest competitor, but just kind of maybe a follow-up on Andrea's question. Are you kind of assuming that what we're seeing in the last couple of weeks here is really noise and as these shelf resets happen, you're going to see kind of an improvement in share sequentially?
Thanks, Peter. Yes, look, I mean, obviously, from an April point of view in the choppiness, I'll refer you to my response to maybe it was Andrea's question or Bonnie's, I'm not sure. But we're confident we can lap the results that we had from last year. We believe that we've created a new foundation on which to grow. Shares held for more than a year now. And our first quarter share gains are consistent with the gains that we experienced in the second half of 2023. Our core brands in the U.S. now hold around 15.6% volume share of the industry. That's up over 2 share points from the beginning of 2023.
Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.
I just wanted to -- I mean, we talked about this a little bit, but just I want to contrast your comments today against comments at CAGNY when you sounded just a lot more upbeat about underlying trends across the industry and the prospects of beer. The tone today seems just much more cautionary just a few months later, despite, I think, very reasonable guidance to us to not overly focused on a few weeks of choppy data.
Thanks, Steve. Look, from an overall industry point of view, I mean, we are more cautious, right? I mean the first 2 weeks of April were pretty grim from an industry point of view and did bounce back a little bit in the third week, but we're still down. So yes, I would say from an overall industry point of view, we are more cautious since CAGNY as more data has come in and particularly the first couple of weeks of April.
Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.
Gavin, Tracey. I'd like to get your perspective on 2 things, if I can, Gavin. One is just if you could give us a sense of on- versus off-premise performance, both, I guess, in the Americas and in Europe, actually specifically U.K. Just trying to understand if there's any distinction in the softness we saw in the U.S., whether it's more concentrated on or off trade.
Thanks, Brian. Let's look at the U.K. I think that was the thrust of your earlier first part of your question. In the U.K., the consumer, as we've been saying for quite some time now has been quite resilient, particularly in the face of the severe inflation that we saw there. From an on-premise point of view, continues to perform well, right?
Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities.
Just one follow-up and then a question on cash flow. Just from a regional consideration in the U.S., have you seen any different trends by region that might lead you to believe that what you're seeing in April is perhaps maybe just weather-related versus anything else. And then regarding cash, do you have, I guess, a plan if -- obviously, the stock is under pressure to use a bit more cash through the year with the buyback program that you have and being active in the market in Q1. So just perhaps give us any context on how you would be looking at leveraging your cash flow profile this year?
Thanks, Chris. Maybe I'll start with the, I guess, capital allocation question. So look, as with all capital allocation decisions, we've got models that we run our capital allocation decisions through to make sure that we are providing the most value. So in terms of the share repurchase program, I mean, we've got a sustained and opportunistic approach, and it is over 5 years. So again, that's just one part of our capital allocation strategy, and we'll use the models to make the right allocation decisions during a given period.
Thanks, Tracey. And the other part of your question, Chris, firstly, I wouldn't attribute the first few weeks of April's overall industry performance to weather. I don't think that we're seeing that at all. I mean, weather has not really been much of an issue. So I wouldn't pin it on that. It's more around consumer behavior and our belief that around consumer confidence, as I alluded to a little earlier.
Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.
Two quick questions. The first was just -- I know you've spoken about shipments being ahead and just the contingency plan coming through stronger than you thought was sort of feasible but were shipments ahead of expectations in Q1? That was the first question. And the second was just -- for all the shelf space gains that are coming and you said we'll kind of manifest in the market, April through July, I think you said.
Thanks, Lauren. Yes, our shipments were better than we expected in the first quarter. We very deliberately took our shipments up in the first quarter for 2 reasons: one, which was obviously preplanned and one we put into action in early February. So obviously, we wanted to make sure that we -- our distributors had sufficient inventory to meet the demands, which we knew are going to come from a shelf reset point of view and to continue fueling the momentum behind our brands.
Our next question comes from Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley.
So I want to talk a bit about reinvestment. I know you gave -- you made the comments, I think, since late last year that the plan was to -- you were happy with your overall level of marketing and other spend and you expect to keep that relatively flat. I'm just wondering kind of philosophically or hypothetically and in an environment where the industry is getting softer, at least has become -- where you're getting more cautious on industry volumes.
Thanks for that question, Eric. I mean I'd point to a couple of things. One is we are very confident in our plans that we have behind not only our big core brands, but also our new innovations and our Above Premium portfolio, not only in the U.S. but also in Canada and also across the pond. So we're executing against the plan that we had, and we're spending the money behind our brands to maintain the structural shift that we've seen, and we like our plans. We think they're working. We think our Coors plan Choose Chill and Miller Lite's all stars programs have been very well received by the consumers.
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen.
Gavin, I wanted to know if you could update your outlook for U.S. beer category volume. On the last call, I think you said flat to down 1% and I guess you're probably closer to the negative 1% right now? And then secondly, you said that the retailers are very excited about your marketing plans and you've gotten more shelf space. Do you have any color on how excited they are about the beer category?
Thanks, Robert. I think that the answer to that is that the retailers are confident and excited about our plans, and they're confident and excited about our velocities and have accordingly allocated us unprecedented amounts of extra space. That's the first point. I don't believe when all is said and done that we will see a large expansion in the space that is -- that has been allocated to beer as a category.
Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein.
Two questions for me. The first is fully understand your point on it takes more than a couple of weeks in April to determine that sort of medium-term volume outlook for the beer industry. So it sort of sounds like you believe on the whole a lot of these weaknesses are transitory, would that be a correct interpretation? Or do you think that there are more structural headwinds at play? I know you called out not seeing anything from GLP-1, but I think investors are calling out a lot of potential concern as this is on potential.
Thanks, Nadine. Look, I think from an overall industry point of view and drawing conclusions in the first 3 weeks of April, is not something that we're going to do, right? There's a lot of choppiness that's taking place in April. I think I covered that off on an earlier question around the timing of Easter, the massive dislocation, which we saw take place over several weeks in April from the Bud Light situation, the Eastern mismatch pricing and so on.
Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.
I just wanted to come back to the strike impact. You called out the pull forward in the volume and touched on some of the operating leverage lift. Are there other puts and takes we should keep in mind just modeling going forward? And would it be correct or fair enough maybe to say that some of the -- any disruption costs seem to be roughly offset by just not having the workers on the payroll that are striking or how do we just think about what the impact is in the rest of the year? Or if or well, obviously, as long as this keeps going, but near term, say, second quarter?
Thanks, Mike. Look, Tracey can take the cost side of that particular question. From an overall inventory levels, our inventory levels are very healthy. We -- We're, as I said, maintaining supply to our distributors. Our plan is ahead of where we would expect it to be on a week-to-week basis. So from that point of view, I don't expect any impact. Tracey, from a cost point of view?
Yes. Michael, as of now, the costs related to the contingency plan has not been material and we don't expect it to be material. So we do not expect it to be material for the balance of the year based on our current projections.
Our next question comes from Brett Cooper from Consumer Edge Research.
There's been a lot talked about with respect to the soft beer industry. But one thing I would love to get your perspective on is, if you step back and not asking about first quarter or April, but over the last 12 months or whatever, there's been a narrowing in the gap of performance between [ cigarettes ] and beer in the U.S. And I would love to hear your perspective on if the beer industry is not a right with respect to some of the moves to flavors to be more competitive for share through in the overall alcohol space or if you think that this is somewhat transitory?
Thanks, Brett. Look, I think the work that we've done as a category is having more of a positive impact than a transitory one. So I would suggest that the work that we've done around flavors, non-alcohol beers, the moderate impact of the -- all of these things are positive for the overall beer industry, and I don't believe that those are transitory.
Our next question comes from Gerald Pascarelli from Wedbush Securities.
Great. Gavin, I had a follow-up on your above premium strategy and specifically within spirits. You acquired Blue Run last year, obviously, a very premium, but very small brand. So given your goal of driving an increased contribution to above premium and understanding that a big part of that will, in fact, come from beyond beer. Would just love to get your thoughts on whether you feel incremental M&A would be necessary to hit your targets and if increasing your exposure to spirits or American whiskey fits into that strategy?
Yes. Thanks, Joe. Look, I think our move into beyond beer is much broader than spirits, right? And actually, I would say the bigger move that we've made is into both flavor with brands like Simply and Happy Thursday, coupled with our move into the non-allocation space and specifically with ZOA so the sort of non-ALC non-beer space with ZOA. I certainly believe that we need to have more than just ZOA in the non-alc space, and certainly, that can come from internal development as opposed to buy. I think from a spirits point of view, we did launch our own spirits -- our own spirits brands. And we did, as you say, buy a stake in Blue Run.
That concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now hand back over to Greg Tierney for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Greg?
All right. Thank you, operator. If you do really appreciate you joining us today. If you do have any additional questions, please follow up with me and Tracey and the IR team. And with that, we thank everybody for participating in today's call. Have a great day.
That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.