Subtext

NSC

Norfolk Southern Corporation2024 Q1

SectorIndustrials
Date2024-04-24
Overall sentiment+1.9
Total words3756
CEO words0
CFO words390
Analyst words949
Trailing EPS$11.80
Forward EPS est.$12.43
Forward P/E21.2
Sourceglopardo

Transcript

Each turn shows the speaker, their inferred role, the section, and that turn's net sentiment (×1000).

OperatorOperator+23.3

Greetings, and welcome to Norfolk Southern Corporation's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Luke Nichols, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Nichols, you may now begin.

Luke NicholsIR+0.0

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.

Alan ShawOther+25.3

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Norfolk Southern's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Here with me today are Mark George, our Chief Financial Officer; Ed Elkins, our Chief Marketing Officer; and our new Chief Operating Officer, John Orr. I am excited to have John on the Norfolk Southern team. John is a 40-year railroad industry veteran and a proven PSR expert who has worked with Hunter Harrison, Claude Mongeau and Keith Creel to implement PSR railroads across 3 countries.

Mark GeorgeCFO+17.9

Thanks, Alan. As seen on Slide 5, our GAAP results in Q1 were impacted by 4 items that we've called out for you. Earlier in the month, we announced the $600 million agreement in principle to resolve a consolidated class action lawsuit relating to the East Palestine derailment. That addresses the most significant remaining legal exposures for our shareholders.

Ed ElkinsOther+19.6

Thank you, Mark, and good morning to everyone on the call. Starting on Slide 11, I'll go over our commercial results for the quarter. Overall, volume grew by 4% versus last year, driven by Intermodal. Revenue for the first quarter came in just above $3 billion, down 4% year-over-year as total RPU fell 8%.

John OrrCOO+25.6

Thank you, Ed. I arrived at NS in late March and immediately got to work immersing myself in the operations and connecting with our people. I've had boots on the ground assessing terminals and engaging craft colleagues and frontline supervisors. I've also met with our stakeholders from labor, regulatory and community leadership. What I've seen confirms that NS is a robust franchise with a talented team and the resources to deliver impressive results when properly executed. Our safety performance as shown on Slide 15, has trended favorably. I have observed a strong safety commitment, and we are building on that. My first action as COO was a system safety blitz to provide clarity around the value of safety.

Alan ShawOther+27.5

Our strategy is designed to mirror the great success stories of the Canadian railroads who have recognized that PSR is about more than tearing a railroad down to its studs at slashing costs regardless of the fallout. As our Board member, Claude Mongeau, demonstrated when he was CEO of Canadian National, a PSR operating model, when part of a customer-focused balanced strategy, can deliver top-tier revenue growth and a sub-60 operating ratio. John Orr was an integral part of Claude's leadership team at CN and thus, a perfect fit from Norfolk Southern as we turbocharge productivity in pursuit of industry competitive margins and top-tier earnings growth.

OperatorOperator+0.0

[Operator Instructions]

Brian OssenbeckOther-10.0

Just wanted to understand, going back to the Meridian Speedway concession. Does that actually have an impact? Or does that cover anything related to traffic originating or terminating out of Mexico? And then secondarily, maybe something for John or the team. Can you just give us some sense behind the underlying assumptions as you're benchmarking these productivity savings going down to 60 OR in the next 2, 3 years? And why can't you go there faster? What's holding you back from that? Maybe you can help with walking through some of the assumptions under your numbers versus what else we see out there?

Alan ShawOther-17.2

Thanks for the question, Brian. Let me be really clear. The agreement related to the Meridian Speedway is by no means a consequential concession, and it does not impact Mexico. We said it impacts the Dallas business, which is largely defined by abundant truck capacity. John, do you want to handle the second part of his one question.

John OrrCOO+10.8

Sure. Brian, nice to talk to you. And I'll tell you, I've been out assessing the network, and I'm really confident with the plans that I've got underway today that we're on track for the 400 to 500 basis points by year-end. And I'll tell you, our operating costs are a direct reflection of our asset management. And speed and accuracy are really essential to that. And our ability to rapidly cycle assets reduces our need for them, which is why we're focused on accelerating all of our operations simultaneously while taking out costs.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott GroupAnalyst+10.8

So Mark, you're guiding 400 to 500 basis points of sequential improvement into Q2. Just help us think about the drivers there? How much volume? How should we think about cost ex fuel? And there's a lot going on with the proxy. So I do want to ask also, Alan. A, what's -- any expectation in terms of timing for ISS and then there is a lot of focus on this Meridian Speedway thing. It looks like there was another a second amendment that you guys filed yesterday. Any color on what that second amendment is?

Mark GeorgeCFO+0.0

Yes, I'll start. First, I think the amendment was just really formalizing with the SEB who had requested that things get filed, the whole exchange that we want -- that we had the 8-K and some of the other stuff. They just wanted to see it formally filed. So we did exactly that. That's all it is, nothing new than what's already been communicated. ISS, we don't control it. We would imagine that comes out likely at the end of this week, early next week, but we don't know.

Alan ShawOther-47.6

And Scott, recall in John's prepared remarks, you had a chart that said about $250 million in productivity over the next 6 months.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

Thomas WadewitzAnalyst+7.9

Yes. Alan, I wanted to get your thoughts on, I guess, how -- you've had a pretty big change, obviously, the new COO, who is, John stated, been very aggressive. The team has been aggressive with taking locomotives out, changing the schedule. How do you think about the risks of that? Because I think your prior approach was something where you thought it would be better for customers to kind of have the resiliency approach. So I guess how do you think about the change in tack on operations and some of the risks of going that way and I guess also recognizing that before you kind of pointed to a lot of risks of being too aggressive on the -- I guess, on reducing people and assets?

Alan ShawOther+13.2

Tom, thanks for the question. Let me be really clear. We we're still focused on that same strategy that we laid out a couple of years ago. And that's that balance between service productivity and growth with safety at its core. And we made a lot of improvements last year in service. We made a safer road even safer, but we weren't delivering the productivity. We weren't running fast enough, and we weren't running efficiently enough.

John OrrCOO+35.3

Yes. And as I've said in my prepared remarks, they're not mutually exclusive. In fact, they're complementary to each other. And my approach is, as I evaluate the network, and restructuring our yard and local plans, what are basically on-ramps to our corridor that touch our service, touch our customers and creating efficiencies, new standards and accelerating through our current dwell times, making improvements year-over-year, but also making improvements on the individual cars and the handoffs on those cars, it drives performance.

OperatorOperator-71.4

Our next question is coming from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Jonathan ChappellAnalyst+8.4

John, I want to follow up on a couple of things that have been touched on already as it relates to the things that you've done in the last 30 days. The volumes so far this quarter have been relatively strong for Norfolk Southern, on a year-over-year basis, [indiscernible] easy comps. But as you go through the next 6 months and you deal with things like laying off 300 more locomotives or reducing merchandise families by 10%, is there a situation where you don't maybe chase volume recovery as quickly as you would otherwise? Or it's more about getting the network where it needs to be and worrying about volume and I guess, the top line beyond that next 6-month period?

Alan ShawOther+0.0

John, why don't you talk about that? And then, Ed, why don't you talk about the market?

John OrrCOO+12.2

Yes. I think that the most imperative thing we can do is to close the gap on performance, reliability and drive the value of the network. As far as the capacity, we're unlocking capacity in the existing terminals by being more efficient, more effective and driving those on-ramps to the network more effectively. What are in that pipeline? We have ample capacity to grow more trains or grow longer trains to get yield out of that even a single line capacity.

Ed ElkinsOther+53.8

Sure. And you're absolutely right, John. We've seen volume so far this month and we're encouraged by that. Our customers are encouraged by the level of service that we're delivering. And to be clear, in Intermodal, the level of service we're delivering is the best in a generation and it's sustainable and it's going to continue to be that way, and we're earning trust from our customers to do that. We're seeing very good response on the bid front for new volume converting from the highway, which we're very encouraged by in Intermodal.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

Justin LongAnalyst-11.5

I guess to follow up on some of the commentary about Intermodal. You've talked about rationalizing some lanes. I wanted to get an update on where you are in that process? Is that now complete? Or is there more to come? And then similarly or along those lines, thinking about these multi-year OR targets, how do you envision the mix of the business changing? Do we need to see a shift to more general merchandise freight? Or is that not necessary to hit these OR objectives?

Ed ElkinsOther-12.0

I'll talk about the Intermodal piece first. I think that was your first question. Look, we took a very, very disciplined view of our Intermodal network and did a couple of things. Looked at lanes that were very low density, looked at lanes that were not strategic in terms of their capability for our customers, and then thirdly, looked at lanes where we did not believe that there was going to be long-term growth potential that we have line of sight on.

Mark GeorgeCFO-12.0

And I would say with regard to kind of the mix question. Intermodal is going to grow because that's where the growth is. We serve the consumers. But at the same time, merchandise has probably suffered more in the past couple of years from the service challenges we have. So just unlocking the network and doing everything that John is doing, should enable Merchandise to really return to better growth rates as we start to recover, and of course, that will help mix.

Ed ElkinsOther+0.0

Absolutely. And the -- as I said, the sales pipeline approach that we're taking has a very disciplined view toward conversion from the high labels in the Merchandise as well as the Intermodal space.

John OrrCOO+0.0

And I would say as far as capacity is concerned, we're improving execution and plan compliance, and that facilitates blocking deeper into our network, which ultimately increases car velocity, train speed and really drives performance. That applies to Intermodal, Merchandise and [ Boat ]. And we're actively engaging and challenging every asset that we've got out there. Just in the last 30 days, I've approved the elimination of over 487 turnouts that were redundant. We're turning over every rock, big or small, to look for improvement and consistency.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

Jason SeidlAnalyst+0.0

John, I wanted to talk a little bit about the new PTO and sick leave regulations and how much of an impact that you've seen there and sort of what you expect going forward? And I guess a quick follow-up is when you look at sort of the whole network, how are you viewing some of the yards? And is there a chance that you look to close a yard or two down the road?

John OrrCOO-12.7

Yes. Obviously, the sick leave is a national issue. I think no different than any other regulated or introduced crew limitation, we all have to deal with it. What I'm really focused on is crew productivity and yard productivity and increasing the capabilities of each assignment to do more within the time frame they've got to work. And so delivering more, getting accountability to connections, getting yield on our trains, that's the most important piece, and we're balancing that.

OperatorOperator-76.9

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research.

Jeffrey KauffmanAnalyst-9.7

John, just kind of a question on your impression coming in. As you were an outsider, you had a certain view of what Norfolk might not have been able to do. Now you're an insider, you've had a chance to see an operation. I guess my question is twofold. Number one, what's different about when you actually came on board and got a chance to get out there and see what's going on. And then my second aspect of that is, what do you think somebody on the outside might not appreciate about the Norfolk network and what can and can't be done?

John OrrCOO-9.9

Well, that's a great question. I'm glad you asked it. I'll tell you, in my first official act with boots on the ground was to go to East Palestine and really understand the scope of that issue. I'll tell you, I've been a railroader for over 40 years. I've been the incident commander at a number of derailments, some very consequential and some that I've had to make those same decisions that were made here to resolve imminent safety concerns. And understanding the scope and scale of the commitment that NS has made to that community, I've never experienced anything like that.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Our next question is from the line of Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

Stephanie Benjamin MooreAnalyst-13.5

I appreciate the color, especially from you, John, on just the detailed plans in place around productivity initiatives and creating a PSR mindset across the organization. With this focus as a clear priority, what has been the customer response just given the changes underway. How does this translate into incremental volumes? Is there a natural lag from customers? Does they kind of get convinced of the changes happening? Any color there would be helpful.

Alan ShawOther+0.0

Ed, why don't you address that?

Ed ElkinsOther+37.0

Sure. And thank you, Stephanie, for the question. As I said earlier, our customers are encouraged by a couple of things. Number one, the velocity of change that they see happening in terms of service improvement. And you think about our first quarter, we absorbed double-digit growth in our international book as well as low single-digit growth in our domestic book, held serve on our merchandise freight and improved service throughout that time and into April. So they're encouraged.

Alan ShawOther+70.4

You know, I've had a number of customers approach me, Stephanie, over the last month since John was announced, encouraged by our approach, encouraged by our direction and supporting our strategy. Our customers, as John noted, in the east are familiar with John in large part. And they've seen what he's done, wherever he's been to enhance service and enhance safety and enhance productivity, and that's what customers are looking for.

Ed ElkinsOther+45.5

I was just about to close that. Thank you for another week of excellent service. You know who you are out there.

John OrrCOO+0.0

And we've had to make hard decisions. Ed and I have had to try to take very decisive decisions on car flows, even on how customers are interacting with some of our service facilities. It is -- but having the work on the front end, engaging with people, helping them understand what we're doing, helping them understand where they fit into that, whether it's union leaders, it's regulatory leaders or our customers, that really, Stephanie, helps them understand what we're doing, why we're doing it and how we're going to work together to create these standards.

Alan ShawOther+21.3

And Stephanie, that is our strategy, is making sure that we bring along our customers and our employees and our regulators and our shareholders with us as we transform Norfolk Southern into a more profitable organization with a safe and service product that is poised for growth.

OperatorOperator-76.9

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

Jordan AlligerAnalyst+18.3

Yes, maybe, this is in some ways a follow-up, but I'm just sort of curious. You have a pretty extensive list of things to do over the next 6 months and then 12 to 24 months. As you sort of come in, knowing what Norfolk had done already per you getting there and the gap that's been talked about. How much of this would you say, as what you would call basic blocking and tackling versus real sea changes in operational scope? Basically trying to assess your degree of confidence level in achieving and kicking all these things off and being able to hit the margin expectations in the coming years.

John OrrCOO+9.3

Well, I'll tell you this, that all across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, I've been a change agent and an architect of PSR. I haven't had the luxury of looking in the rearview mirror very often. And so I don't spend a lot of time looking at what could have been or what was rather than what the current situation is and how fast can we get to the desired state. Desired state is having -- closing the gap for sure, having an operation that is focused on asset management with speed and accuracy to reduce the cycle times, reduce the dwell times and drive out waste.

OperatorOperator-76.9

Our next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital.

Walter SpracklinAnalyst-37.0

I know you've put a lot of time under this, but I do need to come back to it and that is the -- trying to square up the changes that John is making here. They are substantial with the lack of any customer disruption. It used to be, and maybe I'm dating myself here, but it used to be when I ride, we saw PSR change. It didn't -- if customers weren't disrupted, then it wasn't happening, was kind of the view.

Alan ShawOther+0.0

Walter, that's our strategy. That's what we're committed to doing. We're going to implement and we have been implementing PSR in a responsible and sustainable manner. We saw what happened in our peer in 2017. And we're not tearing this thing down to the studs. John knows how to do it without tearing it down to the studs as the activist COO has said he would have to do.

John OrrCOO-26.0

And I think Walter, by the way, it's nice to hear from you. I would say, it's what we said at the very onset, that we're taking a balanced approach. I've laid out really challenging and urgent near-term and midterm targets and I'm taking an aggressive disciplined approach to manage it. And I view as the George Foreman Grill example, you don't set and forget operations. You sweat it out and you can't drive this alone.

Mark GeorgeCFO+0.0

And just to close a loop, Walter, on say the locomotive specifically. Remember last year, we actually had to add locomotives back into service. We spent a fair amount of money in materials, trying to get locomotives that have been stored, back up and running so we could dig out of the top hole we were in following the East Palestine derailment.

Alan ShawOther+66.7

And to summarize, the service level improvements, the dramatic service level improvements and what the customers are reacting to, and that is across our markets and across our customer base.

OperatorOperator-83.3

Our next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

David VernonAnalyst-27.8

So John, you've been at the property a little over a month. I'd love to kind of get your perspective on kind of what the root cause is here that you see as far as kind of what drove the problems? Is it a question of kind of what Norfolk was trying to do or how they were doing it? And kind of any thoughts you have on that would be helpful.

Mark GeorgeCFO-31.2

Actually, I'll handle the headcount question before John talks to you a little bit about his assessment of the challenges. You may recall, we guided last time where we said overall headcount would likely be flat over the course of the year. We were taking 300 non-agreement people out, but we would likely have to add some agreement folks that would offset it. We actually see now with John in the room here, a pathway for total headcount to be down around 2% by the time we end the year. So that's the path on headcount. John?

John OrrCOO+0.0

Yes. And just to add emphasis to that. As we get more productivity out of our yard and locos and more accuracy on our over-the-road transits and performance, we'll see more people virtually come alive, and we'll be able to have more availability and more crew flexibility. And I have frozen all hiring from operations. There may be 1 or 2 critical paths like C&S where -- signals and communications. That's a very specialized scale that we will need to continue to evolve as we bring our OT and IT and that kind of perspective into -- more into our safety plans.

OperatorOperator-80.0

At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Luke Nichols for closing comments.

Luke NicholsIR-16.9

Thanks, Rob. Appreciate everyone's time and joining our call this morning. I recognize there's a few folks that didn't get a chance to ask your questions. I want to let you know Investor Relations is here through the rest of the day. Please feel free to reach out to us. We look forward to seeing everybody through the quarter.

OperatorOperator+0.0

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.