Subtext

MRK

Merck & Co., Inc.2024 Q1

SectorHealth Care
Date2024-04-25
Overall sentiment+0.3
Total words3381
CEO words718
CFO words365
Analyst words850
Trailing EPS$3.28
Forward EPS est.$8.88
Forward P/E13.8
Sourceglopardo

Transcript

Each turn shows the speaker, their inferred role, the section, and that turn's net sentiment (×1000).

OperatorOperator-29.4

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Co. Q1 Sales and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

Peter DannenbaumOther+24.4

Thank you, Shirley, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Merck's First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Li, President of Merck Research Labs.

Robert DavisCEO+47.2

Thanks, Peter. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. We've begun 2024 with continuing momentum in our business. We're harnessing the power of innovation to advance our deep pipeline and are maximizing the impact of our broad commercial portfolio for the benefit of patients. We drove strong growth across key therapeutic areas, executed strategic business development and are now launching a significant new product in the cardiometabolic space while also preparing for the potential approval and launch of 2 additional important candidates in vaccines in oncology. We have significant opportunities ahead of us across all areas of our business, and we're highly focused on realizing them.

Caroline LitchfieldCFO+35.1

Thank you, Rob. Good morning. As Rob noted, we have had a strong start to the year with robust growth across our business, which reinforces the confidence we have in our outlook. We are also making strategic investments to leverage leading-edge science to save and improve lives around the world, positioning us to continue to deliver long-term value for patients, customers and shareholders. Now turning to our first quarter results. Total company revenues were $15.8 billion, an increase of 9% or 12% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The impact from exchange is primarily driven by the devaluation of the Argentine peso, which was largely offset by inflation-related price increases consistent with market practice.

Dean LiOther+10.5

Thank you, Caroline. In the first quarter, we continued to make progress with a steady cadence of clinical regulatory milestones across our pipeline. Today, I will provide updates from our cardiometabolic disease portfolio, HIV and vaccine programs and close with advances in our oncology pipeline. As Rob and Caroline noted, late last month, we received approval from the FDA for WINREVAIR, our first-in-class active and signaling inhibitor for the treatment of dose living with pulmonary arterial hypertension to increase exercise capacity, improve WHO functional class and reduce the risk of clinical worsening events.

Peter DannenbaumOther+0.0

Thank you, Dean. Surely, we're ready to begin Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

OperatorOperator-83.3

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.

Terence FlynnAnalyst+0.0

This is probably one for Dean. Obviously, you guys have been focused on building out your cardiometabolic franchise now. You have the sotatercept launch underway. You've got an oral PCSK9 in late-stage development. You have a GLP glucagon also moving forward for NASH, I believe. But I guess I'd just be curious how you think about the opportunity in obesity broadly as, on one hand, it seems like it could align with your current footprint. But on the other hand, it seems like Merck has gone more towards specialty markets and away from kind of primary care. So maybe just would love your thoughts there, Dean, as you think about building out.

Dean LiOther+39.2

Well, thank you very much. Yes, we are excited about the build-out that we have in cardiovascular metabolic. You pointed out the programs that have the most visibility right now. But let me assure you, there will be other programs that you will have more visibility over the coming years.

In relationship to your question about GLP and obesity, I think there's 2 ways to look at itOther-19.6

you can look at it from a GLP angle, and you can look at it from an obesity angle. If you look at it from a GLP angle, there has been really important work showing its impact in diabetes, weight loss, more recently, in cardiovascular outcomes, most recently in sleep apnea.

OperatorOperator-90.9

Our next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.

Evan SeigermanAnalyst+0.0

I wanted to touch on some of your work in lung cancer, specifically with KRAS G12C, echoing Dean's comment. So this space is becoming increasingly crowded. Maybe walk me through what you believe differentiates your assets today from the currently approved one or from the pan-KRAS assets in development.

Dean LiOther+0.0

Yes. So this is one of my more favorite projects. So I appreciate that you actually ask a question about it. When you look at KRAS, as you point out, there is -- it's one of the most important driver mutations in multiple cancers. And if you say more broadly, not KRAS but pan-RAS, that is also true.

OperatorOperator-100.0

Our next question comes from Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs.

Chris ShibutaniAnalyst+0.0

Maybe focusing on the pipeline on areas that you do not highlight as often, specifically immunology. And then a lot of the discovery work that you talk about in CNS. With immunology with a TL1A, can you just help us understand where we are on the Crohn's study there and also the Pandion acquisition, like in just Phase II.

Dean LiOther+16.5

Thank you very much. So I'll first touch immunology and specifically in the TL1A space. So that TL1A, we think that it will be a highly effective -- the higher efficacy, and also not just in terms of efficacy, in terms of tolerability. That ulcerative colitis program Phase III has started already and is recruiting. We are hopeful that we will be announcing the opening of the Phase III and patients coming in for the Crohn's disease over the next few months. So we are very excited about moving TL1A eagerly and appropriately aggressively move it in Phase III to really sort of outline the really differentiated profile that we have seen for TL1A, and specifically, our compound.

OperatorOperator-166.7

Our next question from Daina Graybosch.

Daina GrayboschAnalyst+0.0

I want to ask some on pneumococcal vaccine. You mentioned several times V116 is customized for adults 65 and older. In the ACIP meeting, they discussed a recommendation in adult 50 or older. And I wonder if you could comment on where you think that ACIP recommendation will end up for V116. And on V117, I wonder if you could talk about how the stack scene, which I believe is now in Phase I is customized for pediatric patients.

Robert DavisCEO+8.9

Yes. Maybe I can start, Daina, and then Dean can add. Obviously, I would just start by saying we were very pleased with the overall tone and tenor of the discussion coming out of the ACIP meeting. And as you look at what we have with V116, we continue to believe -- if you look at the strength of the data behind that, and we've talked about -- Dean mentioned some of the clinical readouts that have come. But recall, we cover 83% of the serotypes-causing disease in adults. That's 30% higher than PCV20. So it's significant, and that was how it was specifically designed, targeting those serotypes which are most prevalent in adult disease.

Dean LiOther+0.0

Yes. I would just add, again, we want to be respectful of ACIP and the FDA. But you did point out something that I think is something that clearly we took notice. When Rob talks about that 83% versus 50% and 30% more, and the specific question that you're asking about, 50 to 64, I would remind everyone that dropping that age for universal vaccination have been considered previously for other vaccines. And they could not come to a situation where they thought that it would be a good idea based on cost effectiveness and as such. And by increasing it from 50% to 83%, we believe that we changed the calculus, and that made why there is renewed interest in lowering that age based on the broader coverage given for V116.

Robert DavisCEO-9.7

And I think there was a second question you had, Daina, about V117. I'll just maybe give a general answer, which is, obviously, if you look at the strategy of V116, it's the same strategy with V117: How do we develop an investigational PCV vaccine that is targeted specifically to those serotypes that cause disease in children, in peds, without hopefully causing untoward effects. And so it's a model that follows that. We've not given any details to the additional serotypes or our thinking. But just understand that if you look at the model of V116, V117 is the same thing in peds.

OperatorOperator-100.0

Our next question comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.

James ShinAnalyst+0.0

Firstly, I know Merck does not provide product-level guidance, but given WINREVAIR's importance and investor focus, can you provide any color on WINREVAIR contribution to guidance? And then second one is for Dean on REJOICE-Ovarian and I suppose precision oncology in general. But does the field know how much overlap there is between [indiscernible] FRalpha? And then for patritumab, I know the data for HER3 shows high expression in advanced patients, but there's a lot of development in advanced space. So how does Merck envision patritumab to be positioned or sequenced?

Robert DavisCEO-45.5

Yes. Maybe, James, I'll start. And thank you for the question. The short answer is, unfortunately, we don't provide product-level guidance. So I don't think we want to get into trying to tell you what we see WINREVAIR as being a contributor in 2024.

Dean LiOther+11.8

Yes. So I'll just add a little bit in relationship to WINREVAIR. I think it's important to emphasize that the indication or the label that we have is a broad indication and is based on STELLAR. And there will be potential data flows that will continue to inform and strengthen the field. We have STELLAR and SOTERIA, which is open label. We have ZENITH, which is advanced, and that will look at mortality and morbidity; and HYPERION, which is in more -- earlier in the journey.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore.

Umer RaffatAnalyst+25.0

I'm just trying to think through your next-gen HPV vaccine. And I guess, how should we think about potential penetration rates with a revaccination opportunity with the new broader-spectrum HPV, especially in patients who have already taken GARDASIL 9.

Dean LiOther-90.9

Revaccination and relationship to HPV, is that what the question is?

Robert DavisCEO+0.0

The new [indiscernible].

Dean LiOther-12.0

With the G9+. I'm struggling to answer your question because I first got to make a G9+ that works really, really well. And when I get that, that will be great because there are patient populations that I think would be extremely well served. But I would also emphasize that we've just talked about cancer. We talked about early-stage cancer. This is the time that you can really treat and potentially cure, but we're in the business of preventing cancers as well.

Caroline LitchfieldCFO+9.9

This is Caroline. I'll just add that as we sit here today, we all know there are many, many people around the world that have not received a vaccine to prevent them against, to help protect them from HPV-related cancers. With the possibility of improving upon G9 with a multivalent vaccine, we're hopeful that we can provide further protection, especially for different population groups. And we will price the vaccine appropriately based on the benefit that it will provide. So we're looking forward to continuing to see growth in GARDASIL and see how the science evolves with our clinical programs.

OperatorOperator-100.0

Our next question comes from Tim Anderson with Wolfe Research.

Timothy AndersonAnalyst-20.4

I have a few questions on KEYTRUDA subcu. It may not be scientifically sexy, but of course, it could be quite commercially meaningful. So we'll see that data, I believe, later this year. Any risk whatsoever to that readout? Or can we consider it to be a slam dunk?

Dean LiOther+0.0

So I'll take the first part of that. I remind myself, nothing is slam dunk once you place innovative drugs in patients. So I'll answer that question. But I think you highlighted really the pembro plus hyaluronidase that we're advancing. I would disagree a little bit. I do kind of think it's sexy in some ways. And that D770, we will be sharing that data by early 2025.

Robert DavisCEO+10.6

Yes. Maybe, Tim, I'll just provide some commentary on your questions on uptake and how much of the patient population this can account for. As we think about uptake of this opportunity, I would first point out that we see really -- it starts with the strength of the clinical data underlying the IO agent itself. So it's more about the confidence they have in KEYTRUDA. And then secondarily, it's about the delivery mechanism, which is important as we think about obviously leveraging the data we have and just the breadth of what KEYTRUDA is.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Louise Chen with Cantor.

Louise ChenAnalyst+45.5

I just wanted to ask you for ASCO on June 3. Are there any specific readouts updates that you're very excited about presenting?

Dean LiOther+0.0

I think there's just going to be a stream of data. There's going to be follow-ups and a series of KEYNOTE, whether it be gastric, hepatocellular, biliary, bladder, non-small cell lung cancer. There will be discussions of many of the programs that I think you're beginning to see coming up in the clinical trial website in relationship to a whole series of Phase III related to molecules that you're familiar with, but also molecules that are sort of earlier in our Phase III development, ranging from bomedemstat to the KRAS program, to many of the ADCs and the updates that we've shown in relationship to not just the Daiichi Sankyo ADCs, but the other ADCs, whether it be TROP2 Claudin or [indiscernible]. So you'll have a whole full array of discussions of those compounds, some at the ASCO, but some at the ASCO investor event.

Peter DannenbaumOther+0.0

Great. Thanks, Louise. I know we have several more people in the queue. We're going to go an extra 5 or 10 minutes to try to get to as many questions as possible.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Trung Huynh with UBS.

Trung HuynhAnalyst+0.0

Trung Huynh from UBS. On the WINREVAIR launch, thanks for the comments today on access and coverage. On approval, you noted that 2/3 of your PAH patients would likely Part D and third commercial. Perhaps can you expand on the free assistance program that you're hoping to initiate? And what proportion of those Part D patients do you think could be receiving free product this year?

Robert DavisCEO-8.3

Yes. I appreciate the question. So as you point out, we are very focused on ensuring that patients get access to the medicine. We're very much committed to it. And that's why we do have -- in addition to our normal programs we would run, we do have the access program we run. That program is actually independent of our commercial operations. We don't really report data coming out of that because it's run through a separate foundation and with the goal, frankly, of making sure that patients get medicines there. So that is available. It can be accessed on our website, and we're committed to making sure patients get the medicine. But specifics on that, we're not going to go into.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Carter Gould with Barclays.

Carter L. GouldAnalyst-28.2

Maybe on your personalized cancer vaccine with Moderna, as the Phase III sort of nears completion of enrollment, it of course begs the question around the potential to sort of file based on the existing data you have. Can you maybe just update us on your thoughts there and whether you think you still need Phase III data or manufacturing would preclude an early filing? Any help there would be appreciated.

Dean LiOther+29.0

Yes, I'll take that. I mean I don't want to speak about whether the FDA will take what action or not. But I'll just reemphasize to everyone what is exciting about our I&T program and our excitement working with Moderna. So here, we're inducing and coaxing sort of immunity. And we're mixing it with a drug that's well known that and leases pre-existing immunity, which is KEYTRUDA.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.

Christopher SchottAnalyst-11.5

Just a couple of GARDASIL questions. You're pointing to a more evenly distributed China sales this year, and it seems like a tougher 2Q comp. But can you just directionally talk about growth for GARDASIL more broadly for the year? I guess the heart of it is still a healthy growth asset for you this year. And the second one on GARDASIL is if we were to move to a single dose of GARDASIL-9, what does that mean commercially and from a sales perspective for the franchise?

Caroline LitchfieldCFO+0.0

Chris, it's Caroline. So in terms of the phasing of GARDASIL, as you pointed out, during 2023, we saw in China an acceleration of the shipment from the second half of the year to the first half of the year, specifically to the second quarter. What that's done is it's provided an actual tailwind to revenue growth in the first quarter for China, but it will provide a headwind more significant in the second quarter. And that's what we've called out.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Your next question comes from Luisa Hector with Berenberg.

Luisa HectorAnalyst-16.4

I also have questions on the WINREVAIR launch. I just wanted to check how straightforward the subcutaneous administration is and when you might expect to launch an auto-injector. Also, should we actually expect the Part D access to come online at a similar pace as commercial? I'm just not sure whether that's something that's maybe sitting more into next year.

Dean LiOther+0.0

So this is Dean. I'll answer your questions in terms of delivery of WINREVAIR. We have it in a vial, and we have it in a situation where both a health care provider or self-administration is both feasible, possible and will be used. We believe that the vast majority with time that people will use it as self-administration. This is a patient population that's quite used to doing injection. So we think that, that will be able to navigate and that the patients will get access.

Caroline LitchfieldCFO+0.0

And Luisa, this is Caroline. At this stage, we are seeing a real acceptance of the value proposition of WINREVAIR in the United States. We're seeing policy for coverage equally across both the Medicare and Medicaid patient population as well as the commercial segment. So as we move forward, we'll look forward to just helping as many patients as we can across all of those segments, irrelevant of their coverage.

OperatorOperator-111.1

Our next question comes from Seamus Fernandez with Guggenheim.

Seamus FernandezAnalyst+15.2

Wanted to ask actually about your RSV-targeted antibody, how you're thinking about that, the optionality for it and the market size and Merck's potential participation in this market as it relates to the competitors' global supply constraints at this point in time. It seems like coming to market more aggressively or as aggressively as possible could actually make for a meaningful market opportunity for Merck.

Dean LiOther-11.4

Yes. So I'll take the RSV question. So clesrovimab, we're excited about it. As many of the people know, it's a monoclonal antibody and it's a way to get passive immunity to infants. We think it's really important as we have seen recently. And ours is a single fixed dose and has the durability in terms of covering a whole RSV season, I think, is critically important. And the ability to give this to an infant any time and -- versus, for example, alternative strategies, which is maternal vaccination.

Robert DavisCEO+23.4

Yes. No. Thanks for the question. And so if I would just kind of, I guess, think a little bit about where we've been in over the last 3 years, a few points I would want to raise. One, I think we've made tremendous progress in a relatively short period of time, and I give all credit to Dean, to our R&D colleagues for what they've been able to do, how they have been able to really move just flawlessly products through our pipeline. It's amazing you think of it now 3 years in, we haven't had really any major failures. The one maybe hiccup with islatravir, but that's coming back. And so I feel very proud of what our colleagues in R&D have been able to do.

Peter DannenbaumOther+21.3

Great. Thank you, Seamus, and thank you all for your time and your interest today. I'm hoping to see many of you at our ASCO event on June 3 or at a few of the conferences that we'll be attending this quarter. So thank you all very much.

OperatorOperator+0.0

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.