Kimco Realty Corporation — 2024 Q1
Transcript
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Good day, and welcome to the Kimco Realty First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.
Good morning, and thank you for joining Kimco's quarterly earnings call. The Kimco management team participating on the call today include Conor Flynn, Kimco's CEO; Ross Cooper, President and Chief Investment Officer; Glenn Cohen, our CFO; Dave Jamieson, Kimco's Chief Operating Officer; as well as other members of our executive team that are also available to answer questions during the call.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. I will lead off today with an update on the RPT integration, a summary of our significant first quarter leasing accomplishments and a brief review of our strategic direction and goals. Ross will follow with an update on the transaction market, and Glenn will close with a summary of our financial results, major metrics and the specifics behind our increase to guidance.
technology, talent and other areas.
Thank you, and good morning. It was a busy quarter of execution for Kimco, and we're pleased with our current positioning and what we've accomplished year-to-date. Just 3 short months ago on the fourth quarter earnings call, I mentioned the optimism in the transaction environment coming off of a dip in the treasury rate and expectations for the Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Thanks, Ross, and good morning. 2024 was off to a strong and active start. As Conor mentioned, our first quarter results are highlighted by solid leasing activity, double-digit leasing spreads and robust same-site NOI growth. These positive operating metrics drove our strong FFO per share growth, excluding merger costs.
higher same-site NOI growth of 2.25% to 3% and from the previous level of 1.5% to 2.5% and is inclusive of the RPT assets and a credit loss assumption of 75 basis points to 100 basis points; interest income of $10 million to $12 million based on the interest income earned during the first quarter and RPT related noncash GAAP accounting income comprised of straight-line rents; and above and below fair market value rent amortization of $4 million to $5 million.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Dori Kesten of Wells Fargo.
You left your credit loss guide unchanged, but had a relatively low Q1. Can you just remind us of your [ 10 ] exposures that are built up to the annual assumption?
Overall, we look at just the entire portfolio when we're doing the assumptions. And again, the 75 to 100 basis point credit assumption is really back to more historic levels. And the first quarter is clearly lower at 62 basis points. But there are some potential bankruptcies potentially during the year that could impact it. And we think it's more prudent to just leave the current guidance assumption, even though we still have been able to increase the same-site NOI guidance pretty significantly.
The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith of UBS.
On the integration of RPT, you said initial G&A synergies of $30 million to $34 million, you took it up to $34 million to $35 million. So in terms of realizing the synergies, what's driving them? What's driving the upside to your initial guidance? And where have there been positive surprises as you've started to put the plan into action?
Sure. Thanks, Michael. Obviously, we're off to a great start with the integration. Clearly, we have a great blueprint and the muscle memory from Weingarten certainly helps. I'll have Will Teichman comment a little bit about the G&A synergies and what's helped there.
Sure. Thanks, Conor. As Conor said, we concluded the integration of portfolio operations, systems and human capital. We did it within a matter of weeks, saving about 2 months off the time line versus our prior transaction with Weingarten. And as Conor mentioned, the playbook that we established post Weingarten has really been key to that developing an integration governance model, tools and processes that are repeatable for future transactions.
Thanks, Will. I also just comment that with the execution of the 10 dispositions, the grocery percentage of the RPT portfolio is up to 85.5%. So it's obviously enhancing to the Kimco portfolio as well. We even have activity on a few of the 9 remaining sites that don't have grocery anchors to potentially convert those to grocery anchors as well. So Will, do you want to comment a little bit on ancillary income as well?
Sure. With respect to ancillary income, it's one of the areas where, as a company, we've been working to build out a national specialty leasing team that's exclusively dedicated to this important area. That's not the case with all of our peers, and it wasn't the case with RPT where they had only recently established a focus around ancillary revenues.
The next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb of Piper Sandler.
So Connor, clearly, RPT, it sounds like whether very conservative or sandbagging, you guys were pretty cautious on how you underwrote it. It sounds like there's a lot of operational synergies on the cost side, but maybe you could just outline a bit more on the NOI side, what the upside is.
Sure. Happy to, Alex. And again, I gave you some stats there on the RPT portfolio. But we gave ourselves, I think, a nice runway to execute and we've obviously been ahead of that assumption. So for the first year, we had -- we thought there would be a ramp-up in terms of leasing, and they thought there might be, again, a transition period where we wouldn't have similar Kimco velocity on the RPT portfolio.
Yes. I'd also mention when we took over the portfolio, there is always a risk in transition, especially on the construction side when you hand off projects from one company to the other. And despite the handoff period, these projects still need to get done. There's still targets that need to be met. There's still lease obligations to fulfill.
The next question comes from Floris Van Dijkum of Compass Point.
Nice positive results, I guess. A couple of questions, but I guess I'm going to focus my question to Ross. I know you mentioned, Ross, that the cap rates for grocery-anchored are pretty tight in particular.
Yes. Thanks, Floris. It's a good question. I think one of the benefits when you look at Kimco is that we do own and have operational expertise in sort of all formats of open-air retail. We do love the grocery-anchored and with lifestyle as well. many of those assets have a grocery component that you get the benefit of.
Floris, the only thing I would add to that is you've seen for a while the lines are blurring across all different retail formats. And what I mean by that is really the merchandising mix. And so you've seen sort of the best-in-class mall tenants gravitate towards open-air shopping centers.
Our next question comes from Juan Sanabria of BMO Capital Markets.
Just wanted to switch tack here. in terms of the Q&A. Just wanted to get your strategic views or sense of the pharmacy and kind of health and wellness business trends and credit there, just we've had Rite Aid, BK, Walgreens is shrinking and Walmart is now pulling out. So just curious on how you see the space evolving and how you're positioning the company just to deal with the changing landscape.
Sure. I think each of those have their own story. And as we know with Rite Aid and having to settle a lawsuit was a big disruptor for them, but it's no secret. Obviously, there is disruption, and I think a shifting landscape in the pharmacy business and how it services the customer.
Juan, I think from a merchandising mix standpoint, the pharmacy has evolved almost like become a mini mart in so many ways. So when you go into a pharmacy, the script business is always in the back and then you walk through all the aisles of higher-margin items. And I think what happened there is the script business got disrupted and then their pricing on the, call it, traditional grocery items, were elevated versus other options that the consumer had.
The next question comes from Samir Khanal of Evercore ISI.
Conor, just looking at the shop occupancy for the RPT portfolio, I think sequentially, was down 40 basis points here. Is there something to read into that, considering that we've seen sort of sequential increases for a while now? Or is that sort of you being more proactive as you sort of de-lease space for greater opportunities?
That was the upside of the deal for us. We actually think that, that's really sort of the juice to be squeezed because we see the small shop momentum continuing. If you look at the Kimco portfolio and the sequential gain we had there, and some of the -- obviously, the leasing we had on the RPT portfolio out of the gates was way ahead of our anticipation.
Yes. I would just add that when we acquired RPT, their small shop occupancy was over 200 basis points lower than ours. So when you blended it all together, again, because it's obviously a much smaller portfolio, the impact at the end is only about 40 basis points.
The next question comes from Haendel St. Juste of Mizuho.
I wanted to follow up, Ross, on some comments you made about the transaction market, the challenge of redeploying capital into dispositions from the dispositions here. Can you talk a bit about the range of cap rates you're seeing out there for the quality you want to buy versus what you need to see to be more active?
Sure. Yes. I mean the JV capital can certainly play a role. But to answer your question, we're fortunate that we have a variety of ways to put out capital. So the acquisition, the core acquisitions, we continue to be very disciplined. You saw last year a very modest amount of traditional core acquisitions because when the market is not where our cost of capital is, we stay patient, we lean into structured, we lean into leasing, we're leaning to redevelopments, and we have other ways to place capital.
The next question comes from Craig Mailman of Citi.
I just want to go back to kind of the small shop commentary, maybe ask a quick 2-parter here. But you clearly have some good commentary around the progress at the RPT assets. I'm just kind of curious, as you'd mentioned some grocery anchors coming on and maybe timing-wise, is helping.
Yes, great question. So with -- obviously, the broader market is doing quite well. But for us specifically, we've launched a variety of programs to really activate our small shop effort and to drive demand and drive demand into our portfolio.
The next question comes from Caitlin Burrows of Goldman Sachs.
Occupancy's on the rise and same-store -- sorry, not same-store, the SNO pipeline is still pretty wide. But I guess, looking forward, it looks like you leased 4 million square feet of space in the first quarter, but that's down from 1Q '23 and 1Q '22 despite now having a larger portfolio. So wondering if you can talk about what's driving that leasing volume lower? Realize it could be for a number of reasons.
Yes. I mean, right now, it's obviously -- our occupancy is also at 96% or all-time high 96.4%. So you're obviously looking at the opportunity set does change as well with that. As it relates to the volume, it's still pretty much in line with prior years, and it's also Q1.
Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss of Deutsche Bank (sic) [ Scotiabank ].
Sorry, a little thrown by the bank there. Looking at the guidance update, it's just under $0.02 from interest income, non-GAAP income and around $0.015 from higher same-store NOI growth, at least based on our math. What are the offsetting factors on the $0.02 guidance range. Is that just earlier dispositions than initial plan? Or any color would be appreciated there.
Yes. I mean, again, it was a very strong quarter. There is, as I mentioned, just under $0.01 of I'll call nonrecurring or onetime things that are in there. But the balance of the year is shaping up very well. So we increased the guidance by the $0.02 that we saw so far and feel good that we're in good shape to reach towards the upper end of that range.
Okay. And then on the 10 RPT dispositions, how important was providing the seller mortgage financing on those transactions to getting them done at the 8.5% cap rate? I mean if the buyer had to go elsewhere for financing, where do you think those cap rates might have trended?
Yes. I mean I really don't think that it impacted the pricing or the execution at all to be completely transparent. That was a structure that we were excited about and pushing on to the buyer because we really wanted to retain a slice of those assets at yields that are really attractive for us.
The next question comes from Mike Mueller of JPMorgan.
I guess looking at the full year planned dispositions, it looks like another maybe $100 million to $200 million and those, I guess, the guided to cap rates look to still be in the mid-8s. Just curious what's making up that remaining disposition bucket?
Sure. We frankly don't have anything specifically identified for that. We've executed, as we talked about on the 10 that we really wanted to get done, and we got done with it quickly. So on a go-forward basis, our goal is really to improve the quality portfolio and the growth profile. And frankly, it doesn't matter if that's a Kimco legacy asset, RPT, Weingarten JV, wholly owned.
Our next question comes from Anthony Powell from Barclays.
You mentioned you saw a lower, I guess, landlord expenses than you expected and we noticed that, too. Maybe talk about what drove those lower and your opportunity to continue to control expenses going forward.
Yes. I mean, our team has done an exceptional job just really looking at every expense line item and finding opportunities to either do it more efficiently, find ways to save and just make adjustments in terms of our operating strategy. And so I have to commend the team and just really digging deep line by line and really finding a better way to manage the business and manage the sites locally. As a result of that, that helped drive our expenses down for the quarter.
The next question comes from Wes Golladay of Baird.
I'm just looking at the presentation, and you have about 6,500 multifamily units entitled. Do you have any interest in starting developments this year to deliver to the -- like a low supply market a few years from now?
It's a good question, Wes. I mean, we've always looked at optionality as being a benefit to us on the entitlement program. We do believe that future value creation is embedded in our portfolio. Unlocking that is a good way to sort of set up different levers for growth when supply and demand and cost of capital is in your favor.
The next question comes from Linda Tsai of Jefferies.
As you look at the SNO pipeline, you have good lease-up opportunity you had still. Do you expect the SNO pipeline to be higher or lower by year-end versus now?
Yes. Good question. Obviously, this quarter, we did compress at 20 basis points. We also absorbed the RPT portfolio. We compressed that pipeline actually significantly. As I mentioned earlier in the call, a couple of big deals started to cash flow in Q1, which was driving that benefit there.
Linda, a lot of it is event driven as well. So when you get a number of spaces back at once, and then you have a lot of leasing activity backfill those, you can elevate the SNO pipeline. But if you don't have an event that gives you back a lot of space that you can release quickly, it should compress.
And I think you mentioned...
Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem of Morgan Stanley.
Just a quick 2-parter for you guys. So on the same-store NOI guide raise, is it fair to say that it's basically earlier commencements that drove the upside? And what is driving sort of the expected deceleration in the rest of the year, is part 1? And then part 2, on the acquisition guidance, just how much of that is identified already versus speculative?
Sure. So as it looks to the rest of the year, we're still comping against some of the Bed, Baths in the second quarter. So that's going to have some impact as we go there. The guide increase really is we have further commencements that came online quicker, as Dave alluded to.
And related to your acquisition question, we're always hesitant to talk about deals before they're really firmed up and closed. But what I can tell you is on the core acquisitions, we do not have anything under contract today.
The next question comes from Tayo Okusanya of Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to go back to Wes' question, but rather I talk about multifamily, talk a little bit more about just the retail redevelopment. You do have in your supp, a fairly expansive list of potential new retailers you could start. I'm just kind of curious about potentially starting those up, just kind of given the overall development pipeline, is probably not as large as some of your peers, but everyone is getting really good yields on that.
Yes. I mean we always look at it as opportunistic in nature. Those are entitlements that we have in our back pocket that we can pull off the shelf when the timing is right. And honestly, when we look at all of our use-of-fund opportunities and determining where the best use of capital is at any given point in time.
The next question comes from Paulina Rojas of Green Street.
You talked about tight pricing in the transaction market for certain assets. And I'm thinking more about geographies. Are there any markets or regions standing out for being less crowded, but that, in your opinion, could offer some opportunities? And I'm basically thinking that regions such as the Southeast being so hard.
Yes, it's a good question. And we always do look at new markets that might make sense for us. As you know, San Antonio is a relatively new market for us that we continue to lean into. Nashville is a market that we really weren't in before that we have acquired a few assets via the RPT transaction. So we're open-minded as it relates to new markets. even in the Midwest, which over the last decade, you've seen a lot of institutional capital sort of outflowing.
The next question comes from Jeff Spector of Bank of America.
Maybe let's turn back to the transaction market. Ross, you said at the top of the call, just given what's happening with the Fed view on rates, there's a dampening in the transaction market. Has anything changed, let's say, in the last couple of weeks? And maybe you could touch on the structured investment pipeline.
Yes. I don't know that I would identify the last few weeks, just any different than sort of the volatility that we've seen in the first 4 months of the year. There was a lot of hope going into the year that there would be some more stability.
And our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb of Piper Sandler.
Just a quick follow-up on the heels of Linda Tsai's question. Do you think that we're being lulled into complacency on the strength of the retail market, the fact that JOANN basically had no downtime. Bed, Bath was almost a nonissue.
A lot of it, Alex, I think, ties back to supply and demand. I mean if you look at the lack of new supply for the last decade plus, and then the evolution of the omnichannel approach by retailers and how important the last mile is with their store located close to where people live, work and play, I think that model has won out.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bujnicki for any closing remarks.
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining today's call. We look forward to seeing a number of you at the upcoming NAREIT conference in June. Please enjoy the rest of your week. Thank you.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.